Steve, good luck ending the political debate over climate change. But you have a few obstacles.
1. Overwhelming evidence does not end political debate. Just ask the creationists, anti-vaxxers, moon landing hoaxers, and 9/11 conspiracy theorists. The whole purpose of the flat earth society is not to convince you that the earth is flat, but to show that what you think are logical, sound, and obvious arguments supported by undisputed facts are actually useless. 2. Anyone who has worked in machine learning knows that you can make a model predict anything you want. A model is an approximation of reality, and therefore has a nonzero probability of making wrong predictions. Since you don't know which data is safe to ignore, you have to test your model by predicting the past. I can find lots of functions that fit the global temperature data at https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/DecadalTemp that either predict the planet will burn up or freeze as I choose. I realize there is a lot more data, but good luck processing it all on your laptop. 3. The most reliable way to forecast data is to average the results of lots of independently run models. Since these other models have already been run, I already know what the results will be. -- -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/Tbefabf50a1da4070-M8cea292ce32e600e1637a5cf Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
