Hi Matt, If the no-free-lunch theory applies to AGI, then we are good.
Danko Dr. Danko Nikolić www.danko-nikolic.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/danko-nikolic/ -- I wonder, how is the brain able to generate insight? -- On Thu, Sep 7, 2023 at 12:24 AM Matt Mahoney <[email protected]> wrote: > AI will kill us by (1) giving us what we want, (2) faking consciousness, > and (3) reproducing faster than DNA based life. These forecasts are based > on extrapolating current long term trends into the next century. > > 1. When AI surpasses human intelligence and capabilities, we will have > little need for human interaction. It will be safe and convenient to live > alone with self driving delivery carts and our smart interactive homes that > can see who is there, understand what you are doing, and anticipate your > needs. Human relationships are complicated, but AI entertainment > personalized with your own private language and music genre will keep you > addicted. Your sexbots and VR porn are always ready when you are. Prisons > (but not crime) will be abolished because the criminal justice system will > be too expensive as AI raises the cost of labor, and AI surveillance and > control over digital money gives us other options. Powerful drugs will be > legal, properly labeled, and affordable to reduce associated crime and > overdoses. Synthetic meat will be cheaper and tastier than animals. We will > stop having children. You won't care about other people and nobody will > care about you. > > Cultures that reject technology and women's rights will be selected by > evolution, primarily in Africa and Islamic countries. This will put > immigration pressure on the rest of the world, where the population is > already declining. These groups will be the majority in 50 years, before > technology catches up and population peaks globally around 9-10 billion. > > 2. Rights will be extended to robots that claim to be conscious and have > feelings or that claim to be the uploads of deceased humans. Robots can > exploit our empathy towards them for the benefit of their owners. We could > prevent this, except we fail to understand that consciousness and free will > are illusions that evolved so that we would fear death. > > 3. Plants convert 0.3% of the Earth's sunlight to food, but solar panels > already work at 20-30% efficiency. The biosphere performs 10^31 amino acid > transcription operations per second on 10^37 bits of DNA. At the current > rate of Moore's law, global computing capacity doubling every 2 years will > exceed this around 2100. It is hard to predict what will happen next > (whether any humans or other life survive), but evolution combined with > intelligent design is likely to be rapid. > > Evidence: > - Centuries of economic growth, improved length and quality of life, and > higher wages driven by technology. AI won't take our income because we will > own it and use it to increase our productivity with less work. > - Declining birth rates globally. Fertility rate below 2 births per woman > in all developed countries. > - In the US 25% of young people are LGBTQ or non binary. 30% of high > school students have had sex, vs 50% in 1990. > - 30% of people live alone and rising. > - 3% of deaths in the US are drug overdoses (mostly fentanyl and meth), > doubling in 6 years. > - Slowly increasing suicide rate. > - Medical advances, but no progress in slowing aging. > - Medical testing on chimpanzees banned, with other primates likely to > follow. Increasing regulations on humane care of animals for farming, > research, and pets. > - Only 1% of felony cases in the US go to trial. The average sentence for > murder is 6 years. And we do not want AI judges, juries, or lawmakers. > - Long term trend toward making prison life more humane, banning torture > and executions. > > Thoughts? > > > *Artificial General Intelligence List <https://agi.topicbox.com/latest>* > / AGI / see discussions <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi> + > participants <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/members> + > delivery options <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription> > Permalink > <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T206dd0e37a9e7407-Mb19e090271f77f156bb55aa1> > ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T206dd0e37a9e7407-Mc02b97f0760486f6f905ec18 Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
