On Fri, Sep 8, 2023, 12:16 AM Danko Nikolic <danko.niko...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Hi Matt, > > If the no-free-lunch theory applies to AGI, then we are good. > > Danko > > > Dr. Danko Nikolić > www.danko-nikolic.com > https://www.linkedin.com/in/danko-nikolic/ > -- I wonder, how is the brain able to generate insight? -- > > > On Thu, Sep 7, 2023 at 12:24 AM Matt Mahoney <mattmahone...@gmail.com> > wrote: > >> AI will kill us by (1) giving us what we want, (2) faking consciousness, >> and (3) reproducing faster than DNA based life. These forecasts are based >> on extrapolating current long term trends into the next century. >> >> 1. When AI surpasses human intelligence and capabilities, we will have >> little need for human interaction. It will be safe and convenient to live >> alone with self driving delivery carts and our smart interactive homes that >> can see who is there, understand what you are doing, and anticipate your >> needs. Human relationships are complicated, but AI entertainment >> personalized with your own private language and music genre will keep you >> addicted. Your sexbots and VR porn are always ready when you are. Prisons >> (but not crime) will be abolished because the criminal justice system will >> be too expensive as AI raises the cost of labor, and AI surveillance and >> control over digital money gives us other options. Powerful drugs will be >> legal, properly labeled, and affordable to reduce associated crime and >> overdoses. Synthetic meat will be cheaper and tastier than animals. We will >> stop having children. You won't care about other people and nobody will >> care about you. >> >> Cultures that reject technology and women's rights will be selected by >> evolution, primarily in Africa and Islamic countries. This will put >> immigration pressure on the rest of the world, where the population is >> already declining. These groups will be the majority in 50 years, before >> technology catches up and population peaks globally around 9-10 billion. >> >> 2. Rights will be extended to robots that claim to be conscious and have >> feelings or that claim to be the uploads of deceased humans. Robots can >> exploit our empathy towards them for the benefit of their owners. We could >> prevent this, except we fail to understand that consciousness and free will >> are illusions that evolved so that we would fear death. >> >> 3. Plants convert 0.3% of the Earth's sunlight to food, but solar panels >> already work at 20-30% efficiency. The biosphere performs 10^31 amino acid >> transcription operations per second on 10^37 bits of DNA. At the current >> rate of Moore's law, global computing capacity doubling every 2 years will >> exceed this around 2100. It is hard to predict what will happen next >> (whether any humans or other life survive), but evolution combined with >> intelligent design is likely to be rapid. >> >> Evidence: >> - Centuries of economic growth, improved length and quality of life, and >> higher wages driven by technology. AI won't take our income because we will >> own it and use it to increase our productivity with less work. >> - Declining birth rates globally. Fertility rate below 2 births per woman >> in all developed countries. >> - In the US 25% of young people are LGBTQ or non binary. 30% of high >> school students have had sex, vs 50% in 1990. >> - 30% of people live alone and rising. >> - 3% of deaths in the US are drug overdoses (mostly fentanyl and meth), >> doubling in 6 years. >> - Slowly increasing suicide rate. >> - Medical advances, but no progress in slowing aging. >> - Medical testing on chimpanzees banned, with other primates likely to >> follow. Increasing regulations on humane care of animals for farming, >> research, and pets. >> - Only 1% of felony cases in the US go to trial. The average sentence for >> murder is 6 years. And we do not want AI judges, juries, or lawmakers. >> - Long term trend toward making prison life more humane, banning torture >> and executions. >> >> Thoughts? >> >> >> *Artificial General Intelligence List <https://agi.topicbox.com/latest>* > / AGI / see discussions <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi> + > participants <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/members> + > delivery options <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription> > Permalink > <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T206dd0e37a9e7407-Mc02b97f0760486f6f905ec18> > ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T206dd0e37a9e7407-M53338c9814dfe3e3e26d389b Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
