Truth is whatever makes the best predictions. The proper way to update our
beliefs is by Bayesian reasoning. If a theory, t, correctly predicts event,
e, then this evidence increases the probability that t is correct to p(t|e)
= p(t)p(e|t)/p(e). We all reason this way because the math is built into
Hebb's model of classical conditioning.

But there are two problems. First, science has no axioms. Probability is a
model of belief, not of the state of our deterministic universe. The
universe necessarily has greater Kolmogorov complexity than any
intelligence contained within it and is therefore unknowable. The problem
is that different people have different evidence. If I flip a coin and peek
at the outcome, then my p(heads) is different from your p(heads).

Second, some of our beliefs are hard coded in our DNA by evolution, which
makes objective reasoning impossible. For example, we all have senses of
consciousness, qualia, and free will, which we know must be illusions
because we know that all human behavior depends only on neurons firing
according to rules that are either deterministic or computationally
indistinguishable from deterministic. These illusions make life worth
living, leading to more offspring.

The nature of science is that you can always find evidence supporting both
sides of any issue. I find this to be true on all political issues. If you
follow both the left and right leaning media as I do, then you find that
both sides have legitimate arguments backed by studies on issues like
abortion, guns, immigration, climate change, children getting sex changes,
etc.

On vaccines, there is a legitimate argument that DNA left over from the
mRNA manufacturing process remains stable for years rather than hours or
days, and we won't know for years if there are any long term effects. I
weigh this against evidence that the vaccinated had lower death rates. I
recall the protection was something like 95% against Alpha, 88% from Delta,
and 12% from Omicron. If you are afraid of needles, it is easy to only
follow evidence against the vaccine. I'm not, because when I was about 5
the nurse put rubbing alcohol on my arm and told me it would numb the pain,
and it did. I'm not planning another booster shot because I already had 3
shots in 2021 and caught Omicron anyway at it's peak in January 2022 and I
barely noticed.

I'm not very hopeful that AGI can solve political division when it was
technology (social media message ranking algorithms) that caused it in the
first place.


On Tue, Sep 19, 2023, 6:35 AM John Rose <[email protected]> wrote:

> On Friday, September 08, 2023, at 3:06 PM, John Rose wrote:
>
> A big threat is for people’s minds to be programmed to believe that
> something that will slowly kill them is good for them.
>
> *hint* *hint*
>
>
> But then, in order to maximize the seductive efficacy of an AI generated
> Darwinian kill shot they’d have to not only asynchronously and lazily
> exterminate existing “vermin” but target descendants by altering the tumor
> suppressor gene via DNA modification…
>
> Hanlon’s Razor LOL
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEWHhrHiiTY
>
> In addition, by adding luciferase and graphene oxide then an agent
> programming interface is firmly in place by exposing an “API” to 5G.
>
> Translation - you’ve been chipped 😊
>
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