When I was 13 (in 1968) I was reading about how neurons represent concepts
and can stimulate or inhibit other neurons, but that memory and learning
was a mystery. I had the idea that synapses could change their state, so
that if both fire together then the synapse changes to excitory, and if the
output doesn't fire then it changes to inhibitory. I was so excited I told
everyone that would listen that I knew how the brain works. Years later
(about 1980) I wrote about my theory for how classical conditioning worked
in my freshman psychology class and got a B because it was off topic. It
wasn't until over a decade later that I learned about Hebb's rule. Not
fair! I wasn't even born in 1949.

Of course all the LLMs praised your papers for your precience that you
wrote as a teenager criticizing the Turing test. That's what they do.
People reward AI for flattery. But lots of other people criticized it too
for the same reasons you did. It's not like Turing wasn't aware of the
problems in his 1950 paper. He gave an example of the computer taking 30
seconds to solve an arithmetic problem and give the wrong answer.

Anyway, I was asking about your predictions for the future, not 200 pages
explaining all the past predictions you got right. I mean, I could point to
my 1999 paper "text compression as a test for artificial intelligence" or
my 2013 paper estimating the cost of AGI at $1 quadrillion. The Turing test
is certainly not the right test for universal intelligence in the sense of
achieving arbitrary goals. But it is the right test for modeling human
behavior, which is the actual reason for building AGI for profit. We don't
want machines that are smart enough to kill us. We just want machines to do
everything we would otherwise need people to do for us. Just predict what I
want by running a copy of my brain and then give it to me.

I predict that we are a long way from the limits of computation. That in
the far future, nanotechnology will replace DNA based life, build Dyson
spheres, and spread to other stars and galaxies. In the near future, humans
will become socially isolated and stop having children in a world where
machines grant all our wishes except happiness.

What are your predictions?

-- Matt Mahoney, [email protected]

On Tue, May 26, 2026, 9:12 PM twenkid <[email protected]> wrote:

> There's another form of Singularity, called *"Singularity of Tosh". *It
> has already happened many times in the scale of hundreds or thousands or
> millions and decades in time, but the expected "great singularity" will
> happen when a sufficient implementation of Вседържец/Vsy=Jack of All Trades
> = Master of All Arts = Allmighty/EMIL/VLESI/Vseboravitel/ACS/"the AGI
> infrastructure" are published and get out of stealth.
>  (...)
>
> The picture below is an example of ST -  from the introduction of *"Stack
> Theory is yet Another Fork of Theory of Universe and Mind"**, 2025
>
>

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