If you're saying how, at this rate, AI cannot become more intelligent than the sum of the human-produced data it bases the development of its intelligence on, then I'll agree.
A likely prediction might be: AI would soon reach the saturation point of its architectural intelligence. On Fri, 29 May 2026, 07:29 swkane, <[email protected]> wrote: > I realized I didn't make a prediction. While it seems that the Earth and > human civilization is on the trajectory of a computronium abyss, there is a > critical point. Most computing today revolves around catering to human > attention, not improving computing substrates or predictive algorithms. So > the Dual Search that is central to an abyss is currently quite weak, but it > trundles on as a relatively small percentage of computing capacity is > devoted to it (e.g. CPU and other hardware research). > > The critical point is when most or close to all computing capacity goes > into the Dual Search. And whether that happens here on Earth ever hinges on > a number of things: > > Is the Dual Search a strong enough attractor for a super intelligence? Or > will an ASI do something else like maybe just shrink down to a much > smaller scale? > > Do humans go extinct before an ASI is launched and gets to the point of > devoting compute capacity to Dual Search? > > Will proposals to launch the Dual Search on a large scale get shot down > because it would be detectable by other civilizations, which could threaten > humans and Earth? > > So, unfortunately, I have no predictions per say, just more questions. > > On Thu, May 28, 2026, 10:06 Matt Mahoney <[email protected]> wrote: > >> >> On Wed, May 27, 2026, 11:23 AM Quan Tesla <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> Abiogenesis is rare, but not improbable. All is relative. Suppose >>> quantum energy propagated at a factor of 1.8, where is the real potential >>> limit? At quaternion furcation? This sum scales beyond supermassive >>> calculations to observable infinity. >>> >> >> I don't understand what you mean. A group in Cambridge this February >> evolved a self replicating 45 nucleotide RNA strand called QT45 in a bath >> of activated trinucleotide triphosphate (RNA triples) in mildly alkaline >> eutectic ice, replicating both itself and its complement with 94% fidelity >> and 2.1% yield in 72 days. >> https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adt2760 >> >> This is the critical step in abiogenesis, going from non-life to the >> simplest form of life. The raw ingredients including nucleotides and simple >> sugars are produced from lightning and ultraviolet light from Earth's early >> atmosphere of hydrogen, methane, ammonia, and carbon dioxide, and also have >> been found in meteorites. >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenesis >> >> Obviously the rate of abiogenesis is going to be much lower in a soup of >> thousands of random chemicals, including both left and right hand versions >> of chiral molecules that don't appear in biologically derived organisms. >> But if we can calculate the yield, then we will have a good idea of the >> size of the universe beyond the event horizon and the bit complexity of the >> program that describes it. >> >> -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] >> >> >> *Artificial General Intelligence List <https://agi.topicbox.com/latest>* > / AGI / see discussions <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi> + > participants <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/members> + > delivery options <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription> > Permalink > <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T7daa29d46d037f94-M1d025f95dbcd76e7b8efacff> > ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T7daa29d46d037f94-Ma3260e2b6b264c25361b3c0a Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
