Abiogenesis is rare, but not improbable. All is relative. Suppose quantum energy propagated at a factor of 1.8, where is the real potential limit? At quaternion furcation? This sum scales beyond supermassive calculations to observable infinity.
On Wed, 27 May 2026, 17:13 Matt Mahoney, <[email protected]> wrote: > > On Wed, May 27, 2026, 1:45 AM swkane <[email protected]> wrote: > >> The current trajectory is the expansion of the Computronium Abyss: >> https://github.com/dissipate/computronium_abyss as more and more of the >> Earth's resources is converted to data centers and computing devices in >> general, and more and more power is used to power computing devices. There >> is no way to predict the precise trajectory or nature of the Abyss once it >> hits a certain takeoff point and Moore's Law ends, to be taken over by a >> new 'Law' for a different computing substrate. >> > > Seth Lloyd used the Margolis-Levitin limit to calculate that the universe > has enough mass-energy for 10^120 qubit operations. I computed the entropy > of the universe at 2.95 x 10^122 bits based on the Bekenstein bound of the > Hubble radius. Unfortunately, most of this entropy is heat, which can't be > used for computation, and quantum computation can't implement memory > because writing a bit is a non unitary (not time reversible) operation. > Lloyd estimated the memory capacity of the universe at 10^90 bits by > encoding 10^80 particle positions and velocities within the Heisenberg > uncertainty limits. Separately I estimated that it is possible to write > 10^92 bits by converting the 10^53 Kg mass of the universe to 10^70 J at > the Landauer limit kT ln 2 energy per bit with k = Boltzmann's constant = > 1.38 x 10^23 J/K and T = CMB temperature = 3 K. This makes eta_S ≈ 10^-30. > > A Kardashev level I could support 10^14 to 10^15 humans at 100 W each > using only solar power. A level II using a Dyson sphere at 1 AU radius > would support 10^46 operations per second, or 10^48 OPS at 10,000 AU and 3 > K temperature. That would be enough to simulate 3 billion years of > evolution in a few minutes. If we uploaded to human level language models > with 10^9 parameters (human long term memory capacity) and 10^18 lifetime > bit operations, it could simulate 10^30 lifetimes per second. There are > about 10^56 atoms in the solar system, enough to encode 10^47 minds over > the next 10^17 seconds before the sun burns out. > > Level III multiplies everything by 10^11 and level IV by 10^23. We could > get another factor of 10^2 by switching from hydrogen fusion to dropping > stars into black holes. > > A paradox to ponder: if the Earth's current trajectory is the evolution >> and expansion of the Computronium Abyss, why hasn't it already happened >> somewhere else and consumed a visible part of the Universe? >> > > Probability because abiogenesis is exceedingly rare and never happened on > any of the other 10^24 planets in the observable universe or even in the > much larger universe outside our event horizon. The multiverse theory says > that the universe is as big as it has to be for intelligent life to evolve > at least once for us to observe it. A smaller universe would require more > bits to specify the physical constants and initial conditions for life, and > would therefore be less likely. > >> *Artificial General Intelligence List <https://agi.topicbox.com/latest>* > / AGI / see discussions <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi> + > participants <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/members> + > delivery options <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription> > Permalink > <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T7daa29d46d037f94-Macd6f65d8a4266a33b4d3125> > ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T7daa29d46d037f94-M6e2c8ea2c691bc602fcde60c Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
