With current LLM tech, yes, that appears to be the case. But maybe that's only because no one yet has figured out how to get LLMs to self improve without human AI researchers. And yes, LLM tech is at saturation. What do you do training wise after consuming all published works plus the public web?
That wasn't my point though. My point was that only a fraction of computing (AI, brute force search etc.) is devoted to improving AI or computing hardware (the recursive self improvement that underpins a computronium abyss). I'm pretty sure, for example, OpenAI's GPUs are being used more to generate cute cat pictures than to improve OpenAI's models. On Fri, May 29, 2026, 02:14 Quan Tesla <[email protected]> wrote: > If you're saying how, at this rate, AI cannot become more intelligent than > the sum of the human-produced data it bases the development of its > intelligence on, then I'll agree. > > A likely prediction might be: AI would soon reach the saturation point of > its architectural intelligence. > > On Fri, 29 May 2026, 07:29 swkane, <[email protected]> wrote: > >> I realized I didn't make a prediction. While it seems that the Earth and >> human civilization is on the trajectory of a computronium abyss, there is a >> critical point. Most computing today revolves around catering to human >> attention, not improving computing substrates or predictive algorithms. So >> the Dual Search that is central to an abyss is currently quite weak, but it >> trundles on as a relatively small percentage of computing capacity is >> devoted to it (e.g. CPU and other hardware research). >> >> The critical point is when most or close to all computing capacity goes >> into the Dual Search. And whether that happens here on Earth ever hinges on >> a number of things: >> >> Is the Dual Search a strong enough attractor for a super intelligence? Or >> will an ASI do something else like maybe just shrink down to a much >> smaller scale? >> >> Do humans go extinct before an ASI is launched and gets to the point of >> devoting compute capacity to Dual Search? >> >> Will proposals to launch the Dual Search on a large scale get shot down >> because it would be detectable by other civilizations, which could threaten >> humans and Earth? >> >> So, unfortunately, I have no predictions per say, just more questions. >> >> On Thu, May 28, 2026, 10:06 Matt Mahoney <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> >>> On Wed, May 27, 2026, 11:23 AM Quan Tesla <[email protected]> wrote: >>> >>>> Abiogenesis is rare, but not improbable. All is relative. Suppose >>>> quantum energy propagated at a factor of 1.8, where is the real potential >>>> limit? At quaternion furcation? This sum scales beyond supermassive >>>> calculations to observable infinity. >>>> >>> >>> I don't understand what you mean. A group in Cambridge this February >>> evolved a self replicating 45 nucleotide RNA strand called QT45 in a bath >>> of activated trinucleotide triphosphate (RNA triples) in mildly alkaline >>> eutectic ice, replicating both itself and its complement with 94% fidelity >>> and 2.1% yield in 72 days. >>> https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adt2760 >>> >>> This is the critical step in abiogenesis, going from non-life to the >>> simplest form of life. The raw ingredients including nucleotides and simple >>> sugars are produced from lightning and ultraviolet light from Earth's early >>> atmosphere of hydrogen, methane, ammonia, and carbon dioxide, and also have >>> been found in meteorites. >>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenesis >>> >>> Obviously the rate of abiogenesis is going to be much lower in a soup of >>> thousands of random chemicals, including both left and right hand versions >>> of chiral molecules that don't appear in biologically derived organisms. >>> But if we can calculate the yield, then we will have a good idea of the >>> size of the universe beyond the event horizon and the bit complexity of the >>> program that describes it. >>> >>> -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] >>> >>> >>> *Artificial General Intelligence List <https://agi.topicbox.com/latest>* > / AGI / see discussions <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi> + > participants <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/members> + > delivery options <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription> > Permalink > <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T7daa29d46d037f94-Ma3260e2b6b264c25361b3c0a> > ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T7daa29d46d037f94-M83d2c8cd9fec791dbc1174c7 Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
