Hi everyone,
I agree that the economic and social implications of AI are vastly underestimated. When I think about the implications AI on the jobmarket, three branches came to my mind which might be handed over to automation and AI fairly soon. 1. I recently looked up how many trucks where registered in Germany - it's about 1 million. If autonomous vehicles proof to be reliable it will be highly lucrative to switch from human to autonomous driving so market penetration can be expected to be pretty quick. 2. A second branch that I think will be under technological pressure sooner rather than later are supermarket personal. The IKEA stores in Germany already have checkouts where customers scan the bought products themselves and pay with a Bank-Card. The METRO group is evaluating RFID for checkout systems and also for controlling the entire logistic chain - from ordering needed items to refilling shelves by automated systems. 3. ecommerce is taking a bigger and bigger stake every year, making local shops more and more obsolete. Even the logistic companies start to save delivery-personal expenses by building centralized packet-claim-stations in cities. Whether or not one agrees these specific prediction are appropriate, I think there is few doubt that it's the rather low-skill human jobs that will get automated first. While it is certainly true that automation and AI will generate new demand for careers in this new and advancing high-tech sector, it should be equally clear that the very people whose jobs where cut by automation are not qualified and - at least in most cases - intellectually not able to step up to these new and highly complicated jobs. With further advances in AI and automation more and more sectors will be affected. Its foreseeable that the new jobs that might be created by the progress will put higher and higher intellectual demands on the employee which means that less and less people are able to partake. That's an issue I haven't seen beeing explored in any diligent detail - let alone seeing any tenable solution. This spiral of progress will continue up to the point to when an intellectually human equivalent AGI will be developed that also has the potential to improve its own code. Despite all the prognosis about humanity reaching a new evolutionary level, the first thing to discover is that we are - in a productive sense - largely useless. The machine will know everything better than we know and will do anything better than we do - that is surely going to be a highly humiliating experience. Work is one of the most important and defining factors in our lives, something we find fulfilling, something that keeps us busy, something we might be proud to do, time we spend socialising with our colleagues and customers. Sure, you can still find yourself some sort of "hobby" but it's so utterly pointless. You just do it - by and large - for yourself, in the very most cases nobody really cares about ones artistic performance, it's for no purpose other than to keep you frantically busy. And as I said imo the people who will get their jobs axed first are the rather simple people which imo. don't tend to get decently creative when left to their own devices. I would really like to see more and deeper work done regarding these issues. Frank Von: Piaget Modeler [mailto:[email protected]] Gesendet: Dienstag, 8. Januar 2013 22:28 An: AGI Betreff: RE: [agi] The Goal? "We aren't giving "good jobs" to robots. Most of the time we are giving them jobs we could never do. Without them, these jobs would remain undone." - Kurzweil PM: In many cases, yes. I agree. "Everyone will have access to a personal robot, but simply owning one will not guarantee success. Rather, success will go to those who innovate in the organization, optimization, and customization of the process of getting work done with bots and machines. " - Kurzweil PM: Will "everyone" have access to a personal robot? really? I dont' think so. Not everyone has a PC or cell phone or internet access, today. "This is not a race against the machines. If we race against them, we lose. This is a race with the machines." - Kurzweil "We need to let robots take over. They will do jobs we have been doing, and do them much better than we can. They will do jobs we can't do at all. They will do jobs we never imagined even needed to be done. And they will help us discover new jobs for ourselves, new tasks that expand who we are. They will let us focus on becoming more human than we were." - Kurzweil PM: If this is truly the case, then why fear the Singularity? The day they take over? Why not do as Kurzweil suggests and go with the flow? Ahhh, there's the rub. _____ Mike Tinter: Kurzweil works so hard & you can't even read his newsletter links: AGI | <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/2564231-53f7a981> | <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; c> Modify Your Subscription <http://www.listbox.com> ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
