On Tue, Jan 8, 2013 at 7:39 PM, <[email protected]> wrote: > 1. I recently looked up how many trucks where registered in Germany – > it’s about 1 million. If autonomous vehicles proof to be reliable it will be > highly lucrative to switch from human to autonomous driving so market > penetration can be expected to be pretty quick.
If this happens (and it will), it means lower prices for most of the stuff you buy because the sellers pay lower shipping costs. When you spend the money you saved on other stuff, it will create new jobs to replace those lost. Overall there is a net benefit. It is true that the out-of-work truck drivers might not be qualified for these jobs, but that isn't a new problem. in 1800, most people were illiterate farmers, and yet today we have neither massive unemployment nor a massive shortage of qualified people to fill technically advanded jobs. Automation happens slowly because the easy parts have already been implemented. It is true that in a purely competitive economy that the rich get richer and the poor are left to starve. This happens with or without advanced technology. It is not a new problem. The political solution is to tax the rich and give to the poor. Why would this not work with AGI? With more economic growth, you need fewer taxes to support the basic needs of everyone. At some point, most people will not have any skills that a machine couldn't do. We say we need a job to define ourselves, to give ourselves a purpose in life. Yet if you give people a choice between working their current job and not working but earning the same income, most people would not work. A lot of people don't need to work (children and retired) and it doesn't seem to bother them. We require exponential economic growth because population growth is also exponential. Since 1800, the economic growth rate has been faster. Before this time, population growth was limited by available food, which meant that most people lived on the edge of starvation. Since then, agriculture has gone from almost the entire economy to 6% of world GDP today (1.5% in the U.S). Poor people in developed countries now have a higher rate of obesity than the rich. -- -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
