On Fri, May 3, 2013 at 4:16 PM, Leonardo Stern <[email protected]> wrote: >> The other cost is the 10^17 bits of global human knowledge needed to >> automate the economy, which has to be collected through speech and >> writing from everyone on the planet at a cost of about $0.001 to $0.01 >> per bit, or $100 trillion to $1 quadrillion. Moore's Law won't help >> you here. > > > We don't need the global human knowledge for an AGI, just human-level > knowledge: 10^9 bits, $ 1 million to $10 millions (using your data).
Actually $10K to $100K per worker replaced, because 99% of the 10^9 bits you need are shared with other people and can be copied. There is 10^7 bits that makes you unique. In order for an AGI to serve you properly, it needs to learn these personal preferences. I assume 99% sharing based on a U.S. Labor Dept. estimate that it costs $15K (1% of lifetime earnings) to replace an employee on average. Notice that in the first case I am describing how much other people know (or should know) about you, and in the second case, how much you uniquely know about other people. Summing over the population, it's the same knowledge. Of course, building a single AGI is much more expensive per worker replaced. What we are actually doing is building lots of systems that each automate small tasks done by millions of people until everything is automated. We aren't building artificial people, just machines that have the same skills. I know some people *want* to build artificial people. Eventually that will be easy, but probably pointless and possibly illegal. -- -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
