> We don't need the global human knowledge for an AGI, just human-level knowledge: 10^9 bits, $ 1 million to $10 millions (using your data).
> > Actually $10K to $100K per worker replaced, because 99% of the 10^9 > bits you need are shared with other people and can be copied. There is > 10^7 bits that makes you unique. In order for an AGI to serve you > properly, it needs to learn these personal preferences. > Ok, 10^9 is like a fixed cost, plus a 10^7 per person. I can agree with that number if we are building a AGI to have manking knoledge on day 0. > > I assume 99% sharing based on a U.S. Labor Dept. estimate that it > costs $15K (1% of lifetime earnings) to replace an employee on > average. Notice that in the first case I am describing how much other > people know (or should know) about you, and in the second case, how > much you uniquely know about other people. Summing over the > population, it's the same knowledge. > I agree. But ...the whole point of an AGI singularity is that you only need to reach humal-level inteligence AGI so AGI can improve itself. Can you agree that building a human-level AGI will cost around 100 billion ? If so, this 100 billion is the initial development cost. What's the operational cost of this system ? Computer maintenance staff, electricity and replacement hardware. I don't have any information about supercomputer total running costs but I can make some gross estimates : Titan hardware costs US$ 97 M. Let's assume that all parts needs to be replaced in 10 years. That's 9.7 M in hardware costs per year. How big is the support team ? 10 full-time workers ? That's ~ 1 M per year How about the electricity bill ? US$ 100/h , another 1 M per year How about the physical space ? Titan needs 404 m2, we can have this space for a sub-million price, we can assume 1M for simplicity. The total running cost is bellow US$ 13 M/yr, that's ~ US$ 1M/month Assuming a computer works 24h/day and a regular worker 8h Assuming that a regular people get easily distracted and computers can have ~ 100% working time I guess that 1 AGI supercomputer can replace the total work output of 5 people. Assuming 5 people working together on a problem produces like 3 people working on different problems. An AGI machine can replace a team of 8 workers. 8 workers for US$ 1M/month is doable for companies like intel , ibm or google. Leonardo Stern > > ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
