On Sun, May 5, 2013 at 8:53 PM, Leonardo Stern <[email protected]> wrote: > On Fri, May 3, 2013 at 9:28 PM, Matt Mahoney <[email protected]> wrote: >> On Fri, May 3, 2013 at 6:09 PM, Leonardo Stern <[email protected]> >> wrote: >> > I agree. But ...the whole point of an AGI singularity is that you only >> > need to reach humal-level inteligence AGI so AGI can improve itself. >> > Can you agree that building a human-level AGI will cost around 100 billion >> > ? >> >> No, you need human civilization level AGI. It takes a civilization of >> billions of people to produce computers and electricity and language >> and an economy. > > > Ok, let's try to slow down this debate avoiding so I can better understand > your arguments. > My original email I made 4 assumptions:: > > 1 - Human-level AGI can trigger singularity. > 2 - Human-level AGI costs US$ 100.000.000.000 to develop > 3 - Human-level AGI costs US$ 1.000.000 / month to operate > 4 - An human-level AGI can replace 8 workers. > > You have disagreed with #1, #2 is agree with your own estimations. > How about #3 and #4 ? Do you agree with these figures ?
4. By definition, human-level AGI would replace 1 worker. But what we will actually do is build lots of narrow AI that each replace a little bit of work done by lots of people. Collectively these applications will replace all human labor. The idea of robots with human-like intelligence is a dream by people who are somehow romantically attracted to the idea and ignore the reality of economy of scale. People within organizations specialize because it is more efficient. There is no need for their replacements to be like humans. One "human equivalent" would mean that the system saves as much money as one person's wages. 3. Assume 1 petaflop and 100 TB memory to do the work of one human with respect to hard problems like vision, language, art, and robotics. Figure the initial investment in computing power amortized over its useful lifetime. By Moore's Law, the hardware loses half its value over 2 years, which makes its useful lifetime 4 years. If the initial cost is $10 million, then figure $200K per month. In 2 years it will be $100K per month. There is also the cost of electricity, currently $100 per hour ($72K per month). This will also drop with Moore's Law, but rise as energy becomes more scarce. -- -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
