On Fri, May 3, 2013 at 6:09 PM, Leonardo Stern <[email protected]> wrote: > I agree. But ...the whole point of an AGI singularity is that you only need > to reach humal-level inteligence AGI so AGI can improve itself. > Can you agree that building a human-level AGI will cost around 100 billion ?
No, you need human civilization level AGI. It takes a civilization of billions of people to produce computers and electricity and language and an economy. World GDP is $70 trillion per year. If you allow 15 years ROI, the economy is worth $1 quadrillion. We can automate nearly all human labor for less than that assuming Moore's Law continues at the current rate for another 25-30 years. Then the recursive self improvement or exponential economic growth that has already been happening for centuries will continue, but mostly without human intervention. I am not sure where the idea came from that one human level AGI would be sufficient. Without civilization, a human would have to forage for food and would not be building computers out of sticks and rocks, or programming his DNA to give his children bigger brains. I also don't want to give the impression that this will be a sudden transition. Machines have been automating human labor for centuries. The printing press automated the work of scribes. What happens is that people continue to work, but they become more productive at the same times that their jobs become less physically demanding, more intellectually stimulating, and higher paying. Technology makes stuff cheaper, so we have more money left over for other stuff. That extra spending creates new jobs to replace the ones that were automated. Once computers are fast enough to solve hard problems like vision, language, art, robotics, and modeling human behavior, then the bottleneck becomes collecting human knowledge so that they do what we want, as opposed to what we tell them. This is a long, slow process due to the rate at which we can communicate our personal preferences through speech and writing. We have already started doing this, for example, by letting our computers and phones record everything we say and do. It should still be slow enough that we can adapt to changes in the job market, with more choices until eventually we are being paid for our hobbies. -- -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
