On Mon, 17 Feb 2003, Mike Deering wrote:
> Based on available data how are we to calculate the doubling time extrapolation into >the future? On 1/6/2003 Stephen Reed writes. "Progressing from -50 db HEC to 0 db >HEC in 22 years is equivalent to Moore's Law doubling every 16 months. [ 2^16.61 = >100025, 22/16.61*12 = 15.9 ]" A careful examination of this formula shows that >Stephen is merely averaging the doubling time over the past 22 years and applying >that constant to the next 22 to arrive at his crossover date of 2021. A constant >extratulation of an average doubling time is not the correct method to project an >exponentially changing value. Unfortunately I haven't been able to get good >historical data on entry level computer market. I would welcome any assistance. >This is my current extrapolation: > > > DATE DOUBLING TIME DROPPING RATE > > 1900 48 months > 1915 42 months 6/180 (6 months in 180 months) > 1930 36 months 6/180 > 1945 30 months 6/180 > 1960 24 months 6/180 > 1975 18 months 6/180 > 1980 17 months 1/60 > 1990 15 months 2/120 > 1999.5 12 months 3/114 > 2001 11 months 1/18 > 2002.3 10 months 1/15 > 2003.3 9 months 1/12 > 2004 8 months 1/10 > 2004.7 4 months 1/8 > 2004.6 3 months 1/6 > 2004.9 2 months 1/5 > 2005.2 1 month 1/3 > 2005.3 <1 month 1/1 Singularity! Sharing your interest with regard to future computer hardware, I will stand by my estimate of doubling time. Assuming Intel makes the processors, take a look at this recent unofficial Intel processor roadmap out to 2006. http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/story.html?id=1045279519 -Steve -- =========================================================== Stephen L. Reed phone: 512.342.4036 Cycorp, Suite 100 fax: 512.342.4040 3721 Executive Center Drive email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Austin, TX 78731 web: http://www.cyc.com download OpenCyc at http://www.opencyc.org =========================================================== ------- To unsubscribe, change your address, or temporarily deactivate your subscription, please go to http://v2.listbox.com/member/?[EMAIL PROTECTED]
