RE: [agi] "doubling time" revisted.

[Ben Goertzel]

There are two issues here...   1)   I think the rate of decrease time of entry-level computer price may be increasing ... i.e. in your terms "the doubling time has been reducing".  I think you're overestimating the rate of increase of the rate of decrease, though...   2)  I think you overestimate the effect of cheaper entry level computers on AGI progress.  The effect is substantial but not THAT substantial, in my view...   Ben G     -----Original Message----- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]On Behalf Of Mike Deering Sent: Monday, February 17, 2003 1:06 PM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Re: [agi] "doubling time" revisted. It is obvious that no one on this list agrees with me.  This does not mean that I am obviously wrong.  The division is very simple.   My position:  the doubling time has been reducing and will continue to do so.   Their position:  the doubling time is constant.   This is not a question of philosophy but only of the data.  What does the data show?  If we had a stack of COMPUTER SHOPPER  magazines for the past twenty years the question could be decided in short order.  The drop in doubling time starts out very slowly.  That is why it is not obvious yet.  By the time it becomes obvious it will be too late.     Mike Deering. www.SingularityActionGroup.com    <---new website.