On Mon, 17 Feb 2003, Mike Deering wrote: > It is obvious that no one on this list agrees with me. This does not mean that I am >obviously wrong. The division is very simple. > > My position: the doubling time has been reducing and will continue to do so.
Ray Kurzweil agrees with you and has data at his web site. My own data series is based upon manufacturer benchmark postings at the spec.org web site. Because Moore's law is a management principle, I concede that Intel could skip lithography generations and move much faster than their roadmap. But I think that Moore's law is an economic optimum for Intel which forestalls competition by making current generations of their product line obsolete on a controlled schedule. I do not see AMD or IBM or anyone else (the Chinese) making Intel move any faster. Should evidence of AGI progress become manifest say by 2010, then I believe military orders will accelerate the pace as they did at the earliest stage of semiconductor technology. -Steve > > Their position: the doubling time is constant. > > This is not a question of philosophy but only of the data. What does the data show? > If we had a stack of COMPUTER SHOPPER magazines for the past twenty years the >question could be decided in short order. The drop in doubling time starts out very >slowly. That is why it is not obvious yet. By the time it becomes obvious it will >be too late. > > > Mike Deering. > www.SingularityActionGroup.com <---new website. > > ------- > To unsubscribe, change your address, or temporarily deactivate your subscription, > please go to http://v2.listbox.com/member/?[EMAIL PROTECTED] > -- =========================================================== Stephen L. Reed phone: 512.342.4036 Cycorp, Suite 100 fax: 512.342.4040 3721 Executive Center Drive email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Austin, TX 78731 web: http://www.cyc.com download OpenCyc at http://www.opencyc.org =========================================================== ------- To unsubscribe, change your address, or temporarily deactivate your subscription, please go to http://v2.listbox.com/member/?[EMAIL PROTECTED]
