RE: [agi] "doubling time" revisted.

[Ben Goertzel]

Mike,   Actually, Stephen's method *is* pretty much a correct way of doing exponential curve fitting.  It assumes that the underlying curve is an exponential rather than some kind of hyperexponential, though.  Kurzweil's contention is that a hyperexponential (an exponential with a slowly exponentially growing exponent) is a better fit   While Stephen's method could be a slight underestimate due to its assumption of an exponential rather than hyperexponential, I'm pretty certain your method leads to a gross overestimate!!  It seems pretty unlikely that the decrease of entry level computer cost is gonna progress as fast as you say; that would mean entry level computers were free in 2005.   Furthermore, even if entry level computers DID become free in 2005, this would not cause tremendous immediate AGI success!  Although it would be cool, because we could get effectively unlimited machines for development and testing ;-)   -- Ben G      ****  Based on available data how are we to calculate the doubling time extrapolation into the future?  On 1/6/2003 Stephen Reed writes. "Progressing from -50 db HEC to 0 db HEC in 22 years is equivalent to Moore's Law doubling every 16 months. [ 2^16.61 = 100025, 22/16.61*12 = 15.9 ]"  A careful examination of this formula shows that Stephen is merely averaging the doubling time over the past 22 years and applying that constant to the next 22 to arrive at his crossover date of 2021.  A constant extratulation of an average doubling time is not the correct method to project an exponentially changing value.  Unfortunately I haven't been able to get good historical data on entry level computer market.  I would welcome any assistance.  This is my current extrapolation:     DATE        DOUBLING TIME        DROPPING RATE   1900          48 months                     1915          42 months                    6/180    (6 months in 180 months) 1930          36 months                    6/180 1945          30 months                    6/180  1960          24 months                    6/180 1975          18 months                    6/180 1980          17 months                    1/60 1990          15 months                    2/120 1999.5       12 months                    3/114 2001          11 months                    1/18 2002.3       10 months                    1/15 2003.3        9 months                      1/12 2004           8 months                      1/10 2004.7        4 months                      1/8 2004.6        3 months                      1/6 2004.9        2 months                      1/5 2005.2        1 month                        1/3 2005.3        <1 month                      1/1            Singularity!     Mike Deering. www.SingularityActionGroup.com    <--new website.