> Yeah, I think it's all just earlier in the process than we'd like.  I
> think that we might all agree that the key for success now is real
> phones, running solid V1 Android OS, with more carriers signed up and
> the start at a marketplace for innovative software.

Precisely.

To look at it another way, suppose that November 1, Android phones start
to ship and Android 1.0 has their "App Store" equivalent. That would put
them 16 months behind the iPhone on the hardware side and only 8 months
behind on having an SDK capable of deploying to hardware.

That's not too shabby, particularly since turnover on hardware designs is
so high anyway. The difference is that OHA is doing this in a relatively
open fashion, so we're seeing the sausage being made, vs. the
cloak-and-dagger iPhone development.

> Are there any Palm developers driving Bentleys?

Maybe that just ain't how they roll, yo.

;-)

> For those of us who can no longer afford to work solely for pizza and
> glory, is this "open revolution," whichever company drives it, going
> to result in real opportunities for developers?

For independent developers aiming exclusively for the Android, probably
not many will "make it rich", but the same holds true for any mobile
platform.

While the number of mobile devices in use is staggeringly huge, the vast
majority seem to be treated as "appliances" by their owners, who may
download content but don't install much in the way of applications. For
example, if I were a betting man, I'd bet that there were more ringtones
installed in 2007 than there have been mobile apps downloaded and
installed since the dawn of time.

Now, eventually, the whole "mobile device as platform" mindset will hit
the mainstream vs. just power users. At that point, there could be as many
rich independent developers for Android as there are for, say, the Mac.

-- 
Mark Murphy (a Commons Guy)
http://commonsware.com
_The Busy Coder's Guide to Android Development_ -- Available Now!



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