On Dec 4, 6:06 pm, Mark Murphy <[email protected]> wrote: > On Sat, Dec 4, 2010 at 6:40 PM, Nathan <[email protected]> wrote: > > Nonetheless, I'm just thinking why would anyone buy one now with their > > own money ($299 + accessories)?
I think that price is ludicrous for a device to which nearly all interesting content is either not available (Netflix, Hulu+) or intentionally locked out (Hulu, ABC, NBC, CBS, Viacom). For this product to have significant mass appeal, it needs to be priced like the Roku, OR, be baked into TVs at OEM and marked up in the price of the TV. This is a big experiment for Google, one that they may eventually pull the plug on if they don't hit specific internal goals. And, given their current track record with hardware and with TV ads, this will be an uphill battle. > > I know many of you have snubbed Amazon and other stores thinking the > > Android Tablet market isn't big enough to bother with. > > FWIW, a million Galaxy Tabs sold, and IMHO they're overpriced (even > though I still bought one, and it's nice). If we start seeing Android > tablets more in the nookCOLOR range ($250) with capacitive screens and > decent CPU/GPUs, the segment will do reasonably well. I'm guessing > it'll be smaller than Android smartphone market but still worth > spending time to target. Besides, it's a whole crop of new OEM deals > for talented developers and marketers to go after. > > > Do you think the Google TV market will be bigger? > > I expect that, inside of a decade, all new TVs outside of the budget > category will be Internet-capable in some form or fashion. Mostly, > that's because stuff like Google TV is pushing the incremental > up-front development cost closer to $0, meaning "it's a no-brainer" to > just toss it in as a feature. The incremental parts (CPU/GPU, RAM, > flash storage, WiFi or Ethernet) are relatively inexpensive, > particularly if the MIPS port of Android gains some momentum. The most > expensive component might be the advanced QWERTY-capable remote. I agree on that prediction, but think it will be 2-5 years personally. For the OEM, this enables them to further segment between the budget and non-budget categories, and already you see this trend for mid- priced TVs. So much so that Samsung and Intel have started advertising the apps on TVs on network TV commercials in the US. > > Unless Apple changes their licensing model, Apple TV will not come > baked into existing TVs, but will remain an add-on box. That means > these Internet-capable TVs will be based on: > > -- Google TV > -- another current smaller player (e.g., Boxee, Roku) > -- somebody new (Meego? Microsoft? somebody not yet invented?) > -- proprietary stuff (like the pre-Google TV Internet-capable TVs) -- Yahoo TV widgets, which are currently installed on many vendors (Visio, Sony, Toshiba, and older Samsungs), and currently leads the OEM Internet connect TV ecosystem. > > The latter seems relatively unlikely, for much the same reason Android > is crowding out proprietary mobile OSes -- lower development costs for > a more powerful platform. Samsung made an interesting move. They used to integrate Yahoo TV widgets across all high-end TVs. In the past year moved from this semi- standard to their own TV widget OS/ecosystem. Their TV Apps page (http://www.samsung.com/us/article/apps-built-for-your-tv) makes no mention of Yahoo TV anywhere. I doubt anyone one this list would agree this was a good idea, and who knows what they were thinking. > > I think that it is too early to predict how much market share Google > TV will have. But a fair number of TVs get sold, so even a modest > percentage (say, 10%) will still be millions of devices. > > However, this market will take time. I don't expect tons of people to > rush out to replace their TV or buy an add-on box from anyone, though > some certainly will. And I don't get the impression that people > replace their TVs as frequently as they replace their phones, > particularly in the US (courtesy of subsidy phones). Once more and > more TVs have this sort of stuff built in, though, it'll be a common > feature request for people buying TVs when they do buy them. I don't think TV apps won't drive the next upgrade cycle, because everything you can get from a TV app, you can get from your phone, tablet or PC. I think that the upgrade cycle will be driven by true 3D technology that doesn't need glasses (I've seen demos - very cool stuff) and increased publisher+broadcaster support for the technology. This will mirror what happened with the HD upgrade wave. And, also like HD, experts will claim that "this is the year for 3D" for 5-7 years in a row (and being wrong each year) until they are finally correct. Jason > > -- > Mark Murphy (a Commons > Guy)http://commonsware.com|http://github.com/commonsguyhttp://commonsware.com/blog|http://twitter.com/commonsguy > > _The Busy Coder's Guide to Android Development_ Version 3.3 Available! -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Android Discuss" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/android-discuss?hl=en.
