Difficulty change has profound impact on miner’s production thereby introduce 
the biggest risk while considering an investment.
Commodity markets offer futures and options to hedge risks on traditional 
trading venues. Some might soon list difficulty futures.

I think we could do much better than them natively within Bitcoin.

A better solution could be a transaction that uses nLocktime denominated in 
block height, such that it is valid after the difficulty adjusted block in the 
A new OP_DIFFICULTY opcode would put onto stack the value of difficulty for the 
block the transaction is included into. 
The output script may then decide comparing that value with a strike which key 
can spend it. 
The input of the transaction would be a multi-sig escrow of those who entered 
the bet. 
The winner would broadcast. 

Once signed by both the transaction would not carry any counterparty risk and 
would not need an oracle to settle according to the bet.

I plan to draft a BIP for this as I think this opcode would serve significant 
economic interest of Bitcoin economy, and is compatible with Bitcoin’s aim not 
to introduce 3rd party to do so.

Do you see a fault in this proposal or want to contribute?

Tamas Blummer 

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