----- Original Message -----
From: "Kristin A. Ruhle" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>
> As for living standards, frankly I think at some point the world is going
> to have to bite the bullet and accept that we can't keep consuming ever
> more forever and ever without destroying the entire planet.
This is one of those off the cuff remarks that have started to get to me.
Its not you Kat, it is just one of those statements that has been repeated
so many times it sounds self evident. First of all, the only item for
which per capita consumption has taken off is plastic. Per capita energy
consumption in the US is flat over the last 25 years. Iron, copper, tin,
etc. have gone down. We are growing our forests at 1.31 x the harvest rate.
In other words, the forests are coming back...and have been for 80 years.
Just what are we consuming so that future generations will have to do
without? Even in the case of plastics, there are plenty of complex
hydrocarbons to last at the present world consumption rate (including power)
for thousands of years. Some of them are a bit expensive, now, to extract,
but nothing like solar power in relative expense. (I cannot possibly see how
we can use up all the shale in the world...shale is sorta like the spam of
geology.)
What is true is that we, like the generation before, are taking the easiest
to find stuff. The next generation, like we did, will have to put a bit
more effort in finding it. But, the improvement of technology allows us to
expand economically available resources faster than we use the resources.
In the case of iron, for example, far faster.
The only possible exception to this is energy...and that's if we don't use
nuclear power. If we do, the world economy can grow to match the West, and
we'll have hundreds of years to develop a new source of power. (If we solve
the political problems attached to breeder reactors or develop technologies
that circumvent those problems, we'll have millennia.)
What are we running out of? In the US its not wood, iron, copper, aluminum
(that's mostly power anyways), tin, food...). We do import, but that's
because American producers are undersold, not because we ran out (Some
elements, of course, have not been mined much in the US, but there is not a
significant end to the plays in the US on the whole.)
The real thing to remember, IMHO, is that there really isn't a shortage of
any element. There is only a sliding scale of ease of extraction. And, as
long as the future generations continue to gradually improve extraction
technology (even at a slower pace than we have) there should be no
shortages.
Dan M.
