On Sun, Mar 03, 2002 at 11:19:45PM -0500, Gautam Mukunda wrote:

> Your correlation doesn't work.  Poor people aren't terrorists.  And
> terrorists aren't poor.

Not my correlation. I didn't make any of those claims (in fact, I said
almost the opposite). What I suggested was that in some circumstances,
poverty could make it more likely that terrorists would emerge, and that
reducing poverty could make terrorism less prevalent. I didn't say that
the terrorists were poor people. Although many suicide bombers appear
to be. Also, I suggested that if there were less poverty, perhaps the
terrorists would feel they had more to lose in a war.

> Me:  No, I'm saying that Amanullah is just making an excuse for what
> he wants to do - destroy the infidel.  The poverty, all of that,
> that's just an excuse.  What he wants to do is destroy India.  If
> you want to fix poverty, you fix poverty - you don't spend tens of
> billions of dollars building useless nuclear weapons and killing tens
> of thousands of innocent people in Kashmir.  When you do that, I for
> one think that maybe it's not poverty that concerns you.

Their system is definitely broken. And it IS stupid to spend your
resources on weapons and war instead of productive capital and better
living conditions for your people. And after you do these stupid things,
you begin to despair for your people. And rather than blame yourself,
it is easier to put the blame on others. Fighting and killing is easier
than working together and building something new and better. But
fighting will make things worse.

> Me:  They have nuclear weapons.  At the moment, the Pakistani
> government is relatively secular, and not immediately dangerous to us.
> If the Pakistani government fell, then we should destroy the nuclear
> weapons.  It's well within the capacity of the American government.
> You don't think we had plans to do exactly that?  I'm quite certain
> that we did

Do we know where all the nuclear weapons are? Do they have any in
hidden, radiation-shielded underground bunkers that we don't know
about? Do they have any biological weapons?

> What would you do if Bin Laden got them, ask him very nicely not to
> put them in New York?

Try to avoid him and those like him from wanting to use them in New
York. 

Iran, Iraq, and Pakistan either have or will soon have nuclear and
biological weapons. It is just a matter of time before a crazy terrorist
gets their hands on some of them. We still can't keep tons of illegal
drugs from getting into the country. Can we stop weapons of mass
destruction from being taken in by people who are willing to die to
deliver them?

> Me:
> Erik, if you know how to develop Pakistan, there's a fairly prestigious
> award handed out in Sweden waiting for you.  Good luck. 

I didn't say it was easy, or that I had all the answers. But it is
certainly more likely than keeping weapons of mass destruction out of
the hands of every terrorist that will spring up over the next 20 years.
THAT would be deserving of a lot more than a Nobel.

> Me:
> But that's not a victory condition for them.  That happens and the Middle
> East starts glowing in the dark.

So what? They will live in bliss in the afterlife. And they have a lot
less to lose than the U.S. Blow up a few U.S. cities and that takes out
so much more, symbolically and economically, than destroying all of the
people in the Middle East.

> We have the capacity to do that, and if enough nuclear weapons went
> off in Western cities, we would, in the end.

And this is a victory for whom?

> But we can do everything possible to keep nuclear weapons out of the
> hands of these people.

And we should. But I doubt that we will succeed in keeping them out of
the hands of EVERY one of these people.

> Me:

> Erik, did you see what happened in Afghanistan?  Did that look like
> MAD to you?

Toppling the Taliban was a good thing, even if it weren't for the
terrorists. It was a good thing that we accomplished. However, as the
recent 10,000 Arab poll showed, it didn't make the Arabs any less
hostile to the US. It probably made the hostility worse, as far as I can
tell.

Bin Laden and Omar are still at large, and the Taliban/al Qaeda seem to
be holding out well near the Pakistan border. I surely hope Pakistan
has all of their nuclear weapons secure from both outsiders and radical
insiders.

> Me:
> Who is more powerful in Syria, us or the Syrian government?  I mean we
> _can't_.

I seriously doubt that. If we persistently offered assistance, using
all methods of persuasion at our disposal, we could surely get them to
accept some. As far as the details of how to improve the conditions for
the poor, that is obviously very diffcult. But I think that getting our
foot in the door in a friendly way is more likely to lead to a long term
peaceful solution than posturing, threatening, and killing.

> Only terrorists with a place of refuge, with logistical support,
> with funding, with places to train without disruption, only they are
> dangerous.  _We can take those away_.  We must.

We can't even take those things away from terrorists in our own country
(Oklahoma City, for example). Do you really claim that we can take them
away from all potential terrorists, everywhere in the world? Of course
we should try to do it when we can. But we shouldn't base our strategy
on being able to get every one.

We should use force when necessary and advisable. But if we plan to put
off more friendly tactics such as economic assistance (and anything else
we come up with once we get our foot in the door that way) until force
has entirely "won" the war, then we will never get anywhere, because
this is a war that we can never entirely win.

> Me:  Don't you think if Bin Laden already had weapons of mass
> destruction he might have used them?

Yes. And if he gets them, he will use them. We are at the point where
all we can do is try to forcefully prevent him from getting them. I hope
that we succeed. But it is not by any means assured. It is a roll of the
dice, it seems. Suppose we win this time. What about the next Bin Laden?
Maybe we won't be so lucky next time.

> You keep saying we're fighting those who have nuclear weapons.

I meant that in the not too distant future, if things continue as they
are, we are quite likely to face terrorists with nuclear weapons. And I
don't think we can prevent that from happening with force alone. I'm not
arguing that we should not use sticks now, rather that we should also
use carrots now.


-- 
"Erik Reuter" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>       http://www.erikreuter.com/

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