> From: Richard Baker <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > The Fool said: > > > I'll place my bets on 2035. > > I'm going to be a conservative and say that Moore's Law will continue as > it is for the next century. Given some advances in software and > cognitive science, this means that by 2030s the AI population will have > be thinking as many thoughts as a human city. The early 2050s will see > "equality" - the AIs and humans will be producing the same amount of > computational activity. By the late 2060s, the output of humans will be > about a thousandth of that of our civilisation. The end of the century > will see the AIs out-thinking us by a factor of a billion. (I expect > the first human-equivalent mainframes around 2025.)
By 2015 a typical Beowulf supercomputer will probably process at the same bitrate as the human mind. It will be some while after that before A.I. technology develops significantly to give the computers intelligent activity. http://www.google.com/search?q=cache:SkZ4Cq3MjlQC:www.bt.com/sphere/insigh ts/pearson/human_evolution.htm+&hl=en
