----- Original Message ----- From: "The Fool" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "Brin-L" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Monday, March 04, 2002 8:54 AM Subject: Re: SCOUTED: Science Meets Spirituality, and Wireless Nanotech VR
> > From: Joshua Bell <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > > >From: "The Fool" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > > > > >All roads lead through the Singularity it would seem. And I Just read > > >'does the future need us". > > > > Indeed. An a perhaps silly question: since the Singularity is the point > > > where, from our vantage point, the future is no longer comprehensible, > can > > you see it coming as you approach it, or do you never quite reach it, > > although "objectively" (from the vantage point of 2002) you've gone > past? > > > > Predictions for a Singularity seem to be converging around 2050 +/- 10 > > years. I'm cautiously optimistic that I will live to see it (I'll be a > mere > > 77 in 2050). In any case, this will be a fun half-a-century. :) > > A.I. and technology will begin to replace jobs at an accelerated rate, as > the technological 'spike' causes technology to be able to replace more > jobs than people can find employment, and job requirements will go up. > This will cause massive unemployment, as most people are not able to > transition fast enough / learn higher job skills fast enough. Technology > will put the squeeze on _all_ types of employment high and low. Since > A.I.'s and Technology will be 'better' workers, and considerably cheaper, > most employers will replace most of their employee's with the 'more > productive' technologies. Somewhere in there economic collapse is bound > to occur, which may slow the coming of the singularity but not stop it. > The way I see it, when 98% of all jobs have been replaced with > technology, that will the 'event horizon'. > > I'll place my bets on 2035. > I have doubts. To replace me you have to have a robot that can replicate many physical skills, engineer on the spot, invent short cuts on the spot, and do it without supervision or oversight for the most part. A robot would be able to replicate most of the mental skills, thats just a matter of complexity and experience. But the physical skills would be quite difficult to replace. Its not just a matter of strength and dexterity, its also a sense of touch and the ability to "feel" what is happening on the other end of a fishtape 100 feet away in a pipe. (Yes, I can do that. I can also tell you where the end is and which bend it is stopped in usually.) I think replacing 98% of all jobs is a lot farther off than you think. You underestimate the number of skills that need to be replicated in order to do so and I'm only looking at my job. You desk jockeys are probobly in more immediate danger of being replaced, but even then I dont think they will replace all of you. xponent Only Worked Like A Machine Maru rob
