The Fool said: > I'll place my bets on 2035.
I'm going to be a conservative and say that Moore's Law will continue as it is for the next century. Given some advances in software and cognitive science, this means that by 2030s the AI population will have be thinking as many thoughts as a human city. The early 2050s will see "equality" - the AIs and humans will be producing the same amount of computational activity. By the late 2060s, the output of humans will be about a thousandth of that of our civilisation. The end of the century will see the AIs out-thinking us by a factor of a billion. (I expect the first human-equivalent mainframes around 2025.) Rich GSV Pessimist
