Dan said: > Well, I think that you, as well as the others here, are overwhelming > optimistic when it comes to the potential for AI.
I don't think I'm being wildly optimistic. Okay, I'll rephrase myself slightly. I expect the hardware to be fast enough to make supercomputers that simulate a human brain in real-time by 2025. Working backwards, we may be able to simulate a rat brain in real-time around 2015. However, I think that the software issues surrounding AI are much, much harder than just having fast enough hardware, hence my "Given some advances in software and cognitive science." Probably these advances will arrive much later in the century, so we'll face suddenly having a large AI population. I have more detailed thoughts on AI and the Singularity and such things at http://cdr.sine.com/cdr/article.cfm?id=209 http://cdr.sine.com/cdr/article.cfm?id=33 http://cdr.sine.com/cdr/article.cfm?id=137 http://cdr.sine.com/cdr/article.cfm?id=87 (All originally Culture list posts.) Rich GSV Here's One I Made Earlier
