In a message dated 3/4/02 10:08:31 AM, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes: << A.I. and technology will begin to replace jobs at an accelerated rate, as the technological 'spike' causes technology to be able to replace more jobs than people can find employment, and job requirements will go up. This will cause massive unemployment, as most people are not able to transition fast enough / learn higher job skills fast enough. Technology will put the squeeze on _all_ types of employment high and low. Since A.I.'s and Technology will be 'better' workers, and considerably cheaper, most employers will replace most of their employee's with the 'more productive' technologies. Somewhere in there economic collapse is bound to occur, which may slow the coming of the singularity but not stop it. The way I see it, when 98% of all jobs have been replaced with technology, that will the 'event horizon'. >>
I'm almost unilaterally unimpressed with doomsday scenarios that hold inherent a fear of technology triumphing over humanity. The framers of these theories frequently underestimate the power of the human survival instinct, human creativity and adaptability. All indications are that intelligence tends to lend itself to adaptability, and humans do adapt. Historically, as technology has been developed that can replace human workers, the people who are crowded out of vocations by machines have found alternative ways of earning a living. This trend has increased with our population and with the growing rapidity of technological advances. Is it an unending cycle? Probably not. But we're still here, scraping away despite all the previous predictions of armagaeddon. Kneem, I strongly recommend that if you're interested in a glimpse of how current technology is affecting the world economy you read Thomas Friedman's latest book. A new trade paperback edition was just released. He targets countries like Iran, Malaysia and Thailand and discusses not only how they fit into the new global economy, but also how their attitudes may be shaping the way their national economies handle upcoming decades. Jon [EMAIL PROTECTED]
