So, how did this all happen?
Here's my assessment......
1) National Security - I've said this many times over the past year that
nominating a former peacnik anti-war activist in wartime was a tremendous
mistake. You would think the Party that twice defended the electability of
a draft-dodger over decorated war veterans would have realized that it
takes more than personal military service to have credibility, even on
foreign affairs. Meanwhile, Kerry spoke consistently of a "global test",
even while never defending nor repudiating his vote against the first Gulf
War with its gold-plated UN endorsement and perhaps the largest coalition
the world has ever seen; all of which could only hurt his credibility in a
post-9/11, post-Doctrine of Preemption world. Bush closed the gap in New
Jersey from 16% to 6% and in New York State from 25% to 17%. These
gap-closings surely contributed to Bush's mythical popular vote win.
2) Values/Personality - To the extent that the exit polls can be believed,
one of the most surprising results is that the "values" ranked at the top
of the most important issues among voters. I'll mention gay marriage in a
moment, but one of the most remarkable things about George Bush has always
been his personal faith and conviction. Bush has repeatedly used the
language of faith in talking about 9/11 changed the world, and histalking
about the "culture of life" has endeared himself to many Catholics. America
is a deeply religious country, and Bush has always been able to convince
many people of faith that he simply thinks like them and is like them.
The Massachusettsan who married a billionaire was simply never able to
connect to the average American the way that Bush has.
3) Gay Marriage - Amendments to State Constitutions to protect themselves
from judicial activism on gay marriage went 11/11 for last night. Perhaps
most extraordinary is the amendment in Ohio, which is so strongly worded
that even I would have voted against it - and yet, it managed 60% of the
vote in a State where Bush was squeaking out at 51% win. Of course, the
ironic thing here is that these Amendments are almost all on the ballot
solely because of the actions of the Massachussets Supreme Court. At the
time, I said that this "victory" would actually end up significantly
setting back the cause of gay marriage in this country - and no place is
that more true than in Ohio.
4) Karl Rove - This administration has always had a plan for getting
re-elected, they stuck to it, and it worked. Bush has governed as a
conservative, and as a result, had no primary opposition - a leading
indicator of reelection for an incumbent. There was also a lot of
skepticism about Karl Rove's claim that there were "4 million missing
evangelicals" in 2000, but it seems as if Karl Rove really has found them.
Republican turnout operations seem to have matched the vaunted Democrat
527 efforts.
5) The Economy - ABC reported today that the economy issue broke for Mr.
Bush, even in Ohio - presuming that you believe those exit polls. Tihs
further highlights the fact that despite what you may hear from Paul
Krugman, by historical standards, the US economy is doing just fine. Like
the lack of primary opposition, the current economic numbers have generally
been a leading indicator of incumbent re-election.
JDG
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John D. Giorgis - [EMAIL PROTECTED]
"The liberty we prize is not America's gift to the world,
it is God's gift to humanity." - George W. Bush 1/29/03
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