Neil suggested: snipped > There is one school of thought that says we should just let BW get on with > it. The waterways will survive in some form or other. With a slight downturn > in the economy BW will hang themselves...after all that is what happens when > you mess with virtual privatisation, market forces and 200 year old > infrastructure...look what happened to Railtrack...and Metronet. > There is another view (mainly subscribed by Steve Haywood) that BW have made > powerful enemies in the govt and that the poor waterways will have to suffer > as old scores are settled.
I cannot see that the first part of this argument is absolutely correct and for these reasons:- 1. The boat population is increasing by 6.6% per year (2006/7 increase over 2005/6 according to BW's annual report). Therefore, as long as boats are coming onto the system faster than they are being scrapped there will always be an increasing customer base and increased revenue, even if the licences stayed fixed (some hope!!). How many boats are taken off the water and scrapped? Not that many IMO. 2. The only way that BW could 'hang themselves' as you put it, is if there was *such* a downturn due to pricing or system condition that (to take an extreme example) no new boat orders were made and no new boats came onto the system. This would have the effect of putting many boat-builders out of business and just won't happen. The only other way is if there was a massive boaters' civil disobedience movement and masses of us joined the UBC - unlicensed boaters club - (currently running at 7.1% according to BW's annual report). Otherwise there doesn't seem to me to be a mechanism whereby BW will ever get penalised by customers voting with their feet; it's not like a local shop where you can go elsewhere. I just cannot see either of these two scenarios happening and so, although there may be a slow- down in sales of new boats, there is never going to be a standstill and BW will only see an increasing customer base. 3. On the second part of your argument Steve may well be correct, but the only people who are going to pay the price is, yet again, us the boaters. Roger
