>On Wed, 2006-01-18 at 09:57 -0800, Bastian, Waldo wrote: >> > The one business issue that is going to be hard to overcome >> >for the general market is the vast differences in market segment >> >sizes. >> > >> > Lets use the numbers of >> > 90% Windows >> > 5% Mac >> > 5% Linux >> > >> > Now the Mac market segment is a little different in that it >> >used to be a much higher percentage and for certain usage >> >models I would imagine that it is the 90% and MS is the smaller >> >number. >> > >> > So if you are looking to enhance the revenue for your product >> >you look at the relative sizes of the market segments for a given >> >industry if the above numbers are close then which ports do you >> >support? >> > >> > Well if you assume that you can gain the same penetration >> >in each of the different desktop environments then the numbers >> >tell you. Let's say that you feel that you can quickly capture 10% >> > of a given application segment. >> >> I think the assumption of uniform penetration opportunities should be >> challenged. >> > Sure - lets say that it is 20% for the new one. i.e. You are the first >one on Linux and there isn't anybody else there. Of course if that >is true then their probably won't be a good penetration. > > So: > > MSS Desktop Penetration % > 90% MS Windows 10% 9% > 5% Mac 10% 0.5% > 5% Linux 20% 1% > ====== > >10.5% > > MSS Desktop Penetration % > 90% MS Windows 11% 9.9% > 5% Mac 11% 0.55% > 5% Linux 00% 0% > ====== > >10.45% > > I always use the "would a venture capital guy buy this" >test. > > And a "there is nobody using Linux for X" so we will >quickly be able to gain 20% of the Linux desktops as >a target market segment share isn't one that would fly with >the smarter ones. Unless it was moving people from >an established desktop and then that would involve >a corresponding drop in the established sales.
Yes, that's part of it. The idea is that the value offered by (my product + linux) is better than (competitor product + windows) The point you make is a good one: The interesting data point isn't current Linux MSS share, but projected Linux MSS growth. You want to capture 100% of the people that are "going to use Linux for X" and it will be your job to make it happen. Your company is going to make rain and catch it all. Your raincloud doesn't show up yet in the IDC weather forecast and when it does your competitors will be too late because you are already out there. The other part that the above numbers don't show is the positive impact that offering your customers the option of migrating to Linux at a later date can have on your current windows sales. That is related to the number of organisations "considering to deploy Linux". No idea how much advantange you can get out of that though. > Of course once the movement starts to happen then >the ISV's will move because they see a change in >the relative % of MSS for the different desktops. But >that is an after they see a trend for a few quarters or >even years. Sure, but you don't get a competitive advantage by moving along with the curve, you need to move ahead of it for that. Linux creates an opportunity for an ISV to do that. It seems to me that a company like Xara understood the opportunity here, maybe Bryce can comment on what motivated them to port to Linux. Cheers, Waldo
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