On Wed, 2006-01-18 at 11:49 -0800, Bastian, Waldo wrote:
> >On Wed, 2006-01-18 at 09:57 -0800, Bastian, Waldo wrote:
> >> > The one business issue that is going to be hard to overcome
> >> >for the general market is the vast differences in market segment
> >> >sizes.
> >> >
> >> > Lets use the numbers of
> >> > 90% Windows
> >> > 5% Mac
> >> > 5% Linux
> >> >
> >> > Now the Mac market segment is a little different in that it
> >> >used to be a much higher percentage and for certain usage
> >> >models I would imagine that it is the 90% and MS is the smaller
> >> >number.
> >> >
> >> > So if you are looking to enhance the revenue for your product
> >> >you look at the relative sizes of the market segments for a given
> >> >industry if the above numbers are close then which ports do you
> >> >support?
> >> >
> >> > Well if you assume that you can gain the same penetration
> >> >in each of the different desktop environments then the numbers
> >> >tell you. Let's say that you feel that you can quickly capture 10%
> >> > of a given application segment.
> >>
> >> I think the assumption of uniform penetration opportunities should be
> >> challenged.
> >>
> > Sure - lets say that it is 20% for the new one. i.e. You are the
> first
> >one on Linux and there isn't anybody else there. Of course if that
> >is true then their probably won't be a good penetration.
> >
> > So:
> >
> > MSS Desktop Penetration %
> > 90% MS Windows 10% 9%
> > 5% Mac 10% 0.5%
> > 5% Linux 20% 1%
> >
> ======
> >
> >10.5%
> >
> > MSS Desktop Penetration %
> > 90% MS Windows 11% 9.9%
> > 5% Mac 11% 0.55%
> > 5% Linux 00% 0%
> >
> ======
> >
> >10.45%
> >
> > I always use the "would a venture capital guy buy this"
> >test.
> >
> > And a "there is nobody using Linux for X" so we will
> >quickly be able to gain 20% of the Linux desktops as
> >a target market segment share isn't one that would fly with
> >the smarter ones. Unless it was moving people from
> >an established desktop and then that would involve
> >a corresponding drop in the established sales.
>
> Yes, that's part of it. The idea is that the value offered by (my
> product + linux) is better than (competitor product + windows) The point
> you make is a good one: The interesting data point isn't current Linux
> MSS share, but projected Linux MSS growth. You want to capture 100% of
> the people that are "going to use Linux for X" and it will be your job
> to make it happen. Your company is going to make rain and catch it all.
> Your raincloud doesn't show up yet in the IDC weather forecast and when
> it does your competitors will be too late because you are already out
> there.
>
Yea getting ahead of the curve is what the marketing folks are
supposed to do. But they are herd beasts and none of them
want to be the first to drink from the new waterhole. :-)
The numbers have to work for a small penetration into the new
segment nobody believes 100% MSS. That is the TAM not a
realistic expectation. :-0
> The other part that the above numbers don't show is the positive impact
> that offering your customers the option of migrating to Linux at a
> later date can have on your current windows sales. That is related to
> the number of organisations "considering to deploy Linux". No idea how
> much advantange you can get out of that though.
>
I agree but I'm not sure how to present that to an ISV without a
set of customers that have large Linux deployments.
If I had customer data. i.e. Mr/Mrs/ ISV did you know that
80% of your Windows customers are deploying Linux desktops
for special functions? That would be a strong argument
in favor of getting ahead of the curve. Yea, they could be
fixed function devices. (Order entry and the like) but it
would show the ISV that their is movement and at least
raise the flag that if they didn't address it there was a possibility
in the future of the Windows sales moving to something
that worked in both environments.
> > Of course once the movement starts to happen then
> >the ISV's will move because they see a change in
> >the relative % of MSS for the different desktops. But
> >that is an after they see a trend for a few quarters or
> >even years.
>
> Sure, but you don't get a competitive advantage by moving along with the
> curve, you need to move ahead of it for that. Linux creates an
> opportunity for an ISV to do that.
>
> It seems to me that a company like Xara understood the opportunity here,
> maybe Bryce can comment on what motivated them to port to Linux.
>
> Cheers,
> Waldo
--
Timothy D. Witham - Chief Technology Officer - [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Open Source Development Lab Inc - A non-profit corporation
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