I was puzzled by the following paragraph:
With that in mind, let's look at the latest example of just how accurate well-done pre-election polling can be: the
Nov. 5, 2002 midterm congressional elections. There is no nationwide presidential voting in midterm elections, but
every American who went to the polls voted for Congress in his or her district. We can thus ask Americans for whom
they are going to vote in their district, and then compare the results to the overall aggregated vote across all 435
districts the next day. Comparing the results of polls conducted just before the election to the actual voting results
provides a pretty good test of the ability of surveys to use small samples to predict the behavior of millions.
I understand that some people do not vote for a Congressional candidate. Many of these are in uncontested elections or lopsided districts, eg, Jesse Jackson, Jr., in Chicago. Others don't care or are hostile to the major parties. Is this paragraph accurate with respect to those who voted for a Congressional candidate.
Regards,
David Smith
David W. Smith, Ph.D., M.P.H.
Associate Professor of Biometry
School of Public Health - San Antonio Campus
University of Texas
7703 Floyd Curl Dr., Mail Code 7976
San Antonio, TX 78229-3900
voice: (210)567-3560
fax: (210) 567-5942
e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
-----Original Message-----
From: Jill Binker [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
Sent: Tuesday, December 03, 2002 12:07 PM
To: AP Statistics; [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Gallup organization on polling methods
http://www.gallup.com/poll/FromtheEd/ed0211.asp
I found this utterly fascinating. My only question now (which I submitted
to the author via the web site) is: what about people who don't answer
their phone?
Still, more detail than I've ever seen before on their pre-election polling.
Enjoy!
________________________________
Jill Binker
Fathom Dynamic Statistics Software
KCP Technologies, an affiliate of
Key Curriculum Press
1150 65th St
Emeryville, CA 94608
1-800-995-MATH (6284)
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
http://www.keypress.com
http://www.keycollege.com
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