Bruce: "There are many of these pontificating pieces, that I usually pass on, as they seem to all talk, talk, & talk about the future, and not much tangible meat to make what they say viable."
I have found it pretty weird that all everyone is doing is just develop 'new things'. Not with the old things that have proven to work already. Anyone working in integration and building packs has this issue. All pieces are moving all the time. If it's not the chemistry it's the mechanics. Or BMS or anything else. So there's only few setups out there that actually have a track record. At the same time all the development keeps the prices high. Investments have to be paid. Chinese are making cells with about $160/kWh but now there is already another barrier ahead which basically cuts the chances to drop the price from there to even lower. Raw materials just cost what they cost. Also building larger production capacity is only possible by investing to more equipment. More investment more is needed to be paid back. 10% interest if one is lucky. I thought this should be changed. And I think we have something here. Take the 'old tech' and then simply, simplify and simplify. Until it stops working and then take few notches back until it works again. So.. I took paper separator and coated it with anode and cathode. Closed the thing with electrolyte to conductive plastic case. A foil-less cell. Chemistry is the same that we've used in TS cells for nearly 10 years. LFP's. Ok. So I just changed the whole mechanics of the Li-ion cell and it still works like a charm. Sorry. Half of the cost was just thrown away with the extra pieces that are no longer needed. (pole assemblies, foils, glues, CelGuard, slurry solvent, etc.) Not to mention one cell can be made 2 by 6 meters to fit in a container. Or to the size of Model S pack. So we'll cut half out of the integration cost too. Serial connections in the pack are formed just by stacking the cells on each other. Fast and slick. BMS chipset is on the side of each 'pouch' so Model S sized pack with 125kWh capacity is made in few minutes. I dare to expect less than $100/kWh in big production. On pack level. Maybe I can tell this much now. I think 'big boys' should hasten their pace if they still think they can play with their 18650's. -Jukka 2013/10/2 Zeke Yewdall <[email protected]> > Yeah.... I want a plugin that I can drive from Seattle to Chicago without > stopping, nevermind that a human can't drive that long without a few hours > for recharging... :p > > The price of lithium has already dropped to half of what it used to be.... > I priced out a lithium bank for my truck back in 2009 and it's half what it > was then, now. And probably better batteries too. Still a little much > for me, but if it goes to half again, I might just replace the nicads and > go lithium (and suddenly have a truck that could go to town and back, > instead of just errands around the house). > > Z > > > On Wed, Oct 2, 2013 at 9:35 AM, Bruce EVangel Parmenter < > [email protected]> wrote: > > > [ref > > > > > http://electric-vehicle-discussion-list.413529.n4.nabble.com/EVLN-Pack-prices-likely-to-plummet-halve-the-cost-within-6yrs-tp4665474.html > > ] > > > > There are many of these pontificating pieces, that I usually pass on, as > > they seem to all talk, talk, & talk about the future, and not much > > tangible meat to make what they say viable. Six years is a bit too far > > in the future for my liking. But occasionally, I like to throw one of > > these out there for people to chew on. > > > > I was thinking, if today the price of a li-ion pack dropped to half the > > cost, yes that would drop the purchase price of a 100mi plugin. > > But it would make a 200mi plugin about the same price as we are paying > > today. Then the media could say, well, 200 miles is nice, but people > > will want a 400 mile range before they would buy one (% You can never > > satisfy the media %). > > > > > > {brucedp.150m.com} > > > > > > > > - > > On Wed, Oct 2, 2013, at 05:54 AM, tomw wrote: > > > If battery costs decrease to half of present costs, say e.g. $10k down > to > > > $5k, the vehicle cost should decrease by $5k. Saying it won't due to > > > "complex electronics" means the costs of those electronics would have > to > > > increase from their present cost to eat up part or all of that $5k. > > > > > > I think either that is a smoke screen to cover up the fact that the car > > > companies plan to add most of that $5k to their margins and not pass it > > > on > > > to consumers, or maybe the method used to reduce costs will be to > loosen > > > the > > > specs for cells so they are not as closely matched in capacity and ir > > > (increasing manufacturing yield), and this requires a more complex bms > > > than > > > the big manufacturers presently use - moving more toward a Tesla type > > > pack. > > - > > > > -- > > http://www.fastmail.fm - Access all of your messages and folders > > wherever you are > > > > _______________________________________________ > > UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub > > http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org > > For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA ( > > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA) > > > > > -------------- next part -------------- > An HTML attachment was scrubbed... > URL: < > http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20131002/c543fb2c/attachment.htm > > > _______________________________________________ > UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub > http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org > For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA ( > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA) > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... 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