I like Jukka's projection -- chances are that technology will move in that direction.
Throw in other factors, such as the convergence of battery and ultra-capacitor technologies, and we may see packs at a fraction of the current cost with equal or higher capacity which can be recharged in less than 10 minutes. Tesla is already trailblazing with their proposed network of super-charging stations. Can you hear the hum of the 500kW charger? ... --Manfred On 3 October 2013 07:22, Jukka Järvinen <[email protected]> wrote: > Power depends on the composition of the layers. > > But as you can see how the mechanics change the setup. The electron never > needs to move more than 0,6 mm at any location at the string. Take any > traditional cell and for example in TS-type cells electron needs to travel > up to 500-600 mm between cells and through all the current collectors. > > These cells are 1-1,2 mm thick and flexible. The 'interconnect tabs' > between cells in Model S pack would be about 2,3 sqm (not sqmm) and only > 0,2 mm long. > > In a Wilde-type application we should see enough C's. DragPack > questimations are too far away but as I am a member of NEDRA I really > cannot say no....... 30-40C should be walk in the park. > > But I was not chasing the power. Reducing manufacturing costs and building > a continuous manufacturing process were the targets. > > One interesting thing is that these cells have nearly none shortcut current > (again...no foils). > > -Jukka > > > 2013/10/2 Peri Hartman <[email protected]> > >> Seriously, Jukka, you've just made a new format cell? Do you have any >> performance numbers on it yet? Cool! >> >> -----Original Message----- >> From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On >> Behalf >> Of Jukka Järvinen >> Sent: 02 October, 2013 11:38 AM >> To: Electric Vehicle Discussion List >> Subject: Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Pack prices likely to plummet,halve the cost >> within 6yrs >> >> Bruce: "There are many of these pontificating pieces, that I usually pass >> on, as they seem to all talk, talk, & talk about the future, and not >> much tangible meat to make what they say viable." >> >> I have found it pretty weird that all everyone is doing is just develop >> 'new things'. Not with the old things that have proven to work already. >> >> Anyone working in integration and building packs has this issue. All pieces >> are moving all the time. If it's not the chemistry it's the mechanics. Or >> BMS or anything else. So there's only few setups out there that actually >> have a track record. >> >> At the same time all the development keeps the prices high. Investments >> have to be paid. >> >> Chinese are making cells with about $160/kWh but now there is already >> another barrier ahead which basically cuts the chances to drop the price >> from there to even lower. Raw materials just cost what they cost. Also >> building larger production capacity is only possible by investing to more >> equipment. More investment more is needed to be paid back. 10% interest if >> one is lucky. >> >> I thought this should be changed. And I think we have something here. >> >> Take the 'old tech' and then simply, simplify and simplify. Until it stops >> working and then take few notches back until it works again. >> >> So.. I took paper separator and coated it with anode and cathode. Closed >> the thing with electrolyte to conductive plastic case. A foil-less cell. >> Chemistry is the same that we've used in TS cells for nearly 10 years. >> LFP's. >> >> Ok. So I just changed the whole mechanics of the Li-ion cell and it still >> works like a charm. Sorry. Half of the cost was just thrown away with the >> extra pieces that are no longer needed. (pole assemblies, foils, glues, >> CelGuard, slurry solvent, etc.) >> >> Not to mention one cell can be made 2 by 6 meters to fit in a container. Or >> to the size of Model S pack. So we'll cut half out of the integration cost >> too. >> >> Serial connections in the pack are formed just by stacking the cells on >> each other. Fast and slick. BMS chipset is on the side of each 'pouch' so >> Model S sized pack with 125kWh capacity is made in few minutes. I dare to >> expect less than $100/kWh in big production. On pack level. >> >> Maybe I can tell this much now. >> >> I think 'big boys' should hasten their pace if they still think they can >> play with their 18650's. >> >> -Jukka >> >> >> >> 2013/10/2 Zeke Yewdall <[email protected]> >> >> > Yeah.... I want a plugin that I can drive from Seattle to Chicago without >> > stopping, nevermind that a human can't drive that long without a few >> hours >> > for recharging... :p >> > >> > The price of lithium has already dropped to half of what it used to >> be.... >> > I priced out a lithium bank for my truck back in 2009 and it's half what >> it >> > was then, now. And probably better batteries too. Still a little much >> > for me, but if it goes to half again, I might just replace the nicads and >> > go lithium (and suddenly have a truck that could go to town and back, >> > instead of just errands around the house). >> > >> > Z >> > >> > >> > On Wed, Oct 2, 2013 at 9:35 AM, Bruce EVangel Parmenter < >> > [email protected]> wrote: >> > >> > > [ref >> > > >> > > >> > >> >> http://electric-vehicle-discussion-list.413529.n4.nabble.com/EVLN-Pack-price >> s-likely-to-plummet-halve-the-cost-within-6yrs-tp4665474.html >> > > ] >> > > >> > > There are many of these pontificating pieces, that I usually pass on, >> as >> > > they seem to all talk, talk, & talk about the future, and not much >> > > tangible meat to make what they say viable. Six years is a bit too far >> > > in the future for my liking. But occasionally, I like to throw one of >> > > these out there for people to chew on. >> > > >> > > I was thinking, if today the price of a li-ion pack dropped to half the >> > > cost, yes that would drop the purchase price of a 100mi plugin. >> > > But it would make a 200mi plugin about the same price as we are paying >> > > today. Then the media could say, well, 200 miles is nice, but people >> > > will want a 400 mile range before they would buy one (% You can never >> > > satisfy the media %). >> > > >> > > >> > > {brucedp.150m.com} >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > - >> > > On Wed, Oct 2, 2013, at 05:54 AM, tomw wrote: >> > > > If battery costs decrease to half of present costs, say e.g. $10k >> down >> > to >> > > > $5k, the vehicle cost should decrease by $5k. Saying it won't due to >> > > > "complex electronics" means the costs of those electronics would have >> > to >> > > > increase from their present cost to eat up part or all of that $5k. >> > > > >> > > > I think either that is a smoke screen to cover up the fact that the >> car >> > > > companies plan to add most of that $5k to their margins and not pass >> it >> > > > on >> > > > to consumers, or maybe the method used to reduce costs will be to >> > loosen >> > > > the >> > > > specs for cells so they are not as closely matched in capacity and ir >> > > > (increasing manufacturing yield), and this requires a more complex >> bms >> > > > than >> > > > the big manufacturers presently use - moving more toward a Tesla type >> > > > pack. >> > > - >> > > >> > > -- >> > > http://www.fastmail.fm - Access all of your messages and folders >> > > wherever you are >> > > >> > > _______________________________________________ >> > > UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub >> > > http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org >> > > For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA ( >> > > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA) >> > > >> > > >> > -------------- next part -------------- >> > An HTML attachment was scrubbed... >> > URL: < >> > >> >> http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20131002/c543fb2c/ >> attachment.htm >> > > >> > _______________________________________________ >> > UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub >> > http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org >> > For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA ( >> > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA) >> > >> > >> -------------- next part -------------- >> An HTML attachment was scrubbed... >> URL: >> < >> http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20131002/e6635084 >> /attachment.htm> >> _______________________________________________ >> UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub >> http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org >> For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA >> (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA) >> >> >> >> _______________________________________________ >> UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub >> http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org >> For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA ( >> http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA) >> >> > -------------- next part -------------- > An HTML attachment was scrubbed... > URL: > <http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20131003/4a6cc3e9/attachment.htm> > _______________________________________________ > UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub > http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org > For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA > (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA) > _______________________________________________ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
