On 8 Jan 2015 at 20:14, Ben Goren via EV wrote: > I think that the grid's days are numbered. ... Right now, we're about > where we were when the Motorola brick mobile phone came out..
This is an interesting and rather heady notion. How cool would that be, doing to the power company what we can now do to filling stations .... I'm no expert, but I suppose it might come to pass if PV efficiency jumps and cost tumbles, the way the utility and cost of mobile phones did between 2000 and 2015. I think that most folks, certainly here in the US, are a long way from ready to accept the energy austerity that now comes with standalone PV. They're addicted to the limitless supply of cheap energy they get with the grid (and even where rates are high, it's pretty darn cheap for what you get). I can hear it now. "Aargh, no clean underwear, and I can't do laundry because we're at 7% and I still have to charge the car. I wonder if the car has enough charge left for a trip to the store to buy some." "Sorry, boss, I can't come in to work until this afternoon. Joe ran the house flat with his welder last night, and I won't have enough juice to charge my car until the sun comes up." Uh-uh. Not gonna fly. PVs will have to get a lot smaller and cheaper, and have way, way more output than they now do. Also, the cost of storage (lithium battery? what?) would have to decline by, oh, I dunno, say, 90%? I have no idea whether such a quantum leap in PV and energy storage tech is on the horizon. Absent one, though, I suspect your estimate of "ten to twenty years" is probably a bit optimistic. David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA EVDL Administrator = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = EVDL Information: http://www.evdl.org/help/ = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = Note: mail sent to "evpost" and "etpost" addresses will not reach me. To send a private message, please obtain my email address from the webpage http://www.evdl.org/help/ . = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = _______________________________________________ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
