Most people are not attached to ICEs. They will buy EVs when the price
is compelling and they don't fear inconvenience of charging.
On price, I suspect people will take fuel and maintenance into some
account but not too much. The sticker price will have to be close. And,
frankly, a new ICE will easily go for 10 years without any costly
maintenance.
On charging, it's easy for us EV adopters to ignore or work around
charging issues. But, whether they need it or not, even two-car
households are used to *each* car having the ability to go on a road
trip. I see more and more people having a "moment of clarity" and
realizing they can get by with one road-trip car, so that's changing.
But on a road trip, few will be willing to wait for 30-60 minutes of
charging every 2-3 hours. And, there's the plethora of apartment
dwellers where charging infrastructure is difficult and costly to
install.
I really don't think people in general are resisting EVs, they just want
a known entity.
And, I think the same is true for the USPS. EV tech has changed a lot
since their prior experiments and, now, there may be very little
resistance by drivers. Right now, DeJoy is the problem, not the drivers.
Peri
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------ Original Message ------
From: "jamie via EV" <[email protected]>
To: "Electric Vehicle Discussion List" <[email protected]>
Cc: "jamie" <[email protected]>
Sent: 25-Feb-21 12:03:26 AM
Subject: Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Your mail may arrive by EV - or it may not
Good points about the importance of political/emotional as well as
technical reasons. In fact the world is constantly changing and things can
become emotionally cool and politically popular over time.
Technology improves. Clunky satellite phones that cost way too much and
didn't work that well have morphed into amazing little internet
communication and computing devices that most people today take for granted
and wouldn't be without.
EVs are climbing the adoption curve. EVs have become cool. People who buy
them tend to say they will never go back. Major automobile companies are
investing heavily into EVs going forward. Local and national governments,
and some auto manufacturers, are putting a cutoff deadline on building and
selling new fossil fuel cars.
Tesla, on stock value, has become worth more than the other major auto
companies combined, or some such, and their cars out-perform gas cars on
multiple metrics. They can't make them fast enough to satisfy demand. We're
a long way past the early EV experiments, lead acid batteries, really slow
charging, and pain cars.
Amazon, FedEx, etc. are moving into EV delivery trucks. There are spiffy
EV police cars popping up in local police departments. Turns out there's
money to be saved, along with the technical advantages.
So things change. For an institution that prides itself on having a
long-term view, it's past time for the post office to get with the program.
I'll bet that at this point a lot of post office employees would agree -
along with the bean counters who can foresee significant operational
savings which the post office REALLY needs.
IOW, just because something didn't work before, within the context and
technology of earlier times, doesn't automatically mean it won't/can't work
now when the context and technology has changed and the momentum continues
to accelerate.
They used to deliver mail with horses.
Cheers,
-Jamie
PS. Yes, gas engine mechanics may not be happy, (nor will the oil
industry lobby). But if it's done right, delivery drivers and mail
carriers, by and large, will be THRILLED to move beyond their ancient
rattletraps into modern EVs.
On 2/25/21 12:05 AM, Lee Hart via EV wrote:
Steves via EV wrote:
Good article about postal vehicles and why they should be electric.
https://www.greatbusinessschools.org/usps-long-life-vehicle/
Biggest take aways:
- 96% of them drive less than 40 miles a day.
- current vehicles get 9 MPG
- 83% are urban (think pollution)
Such a perfect fit for an EV
Ah, but those are the technical reasons. What counts are the political
and emotional reasons.
The USPS has tried EVs quite a few times. They have always "failed"; not
for technical reasons, but because the management and postal workers
disliked them, and opposed them in every way possible. In extreme cases,
the vehicles were even sabatoged to make *sure* they failed.
My dad was a career postal employee. His "inside view" was that the
postal union hated EVs; they were a disruptive technology that got in the
way of "how we've always done things". EVs put limits on how and where
postal workers could drive them. There was extra record-keeping, and it was
harder to charge them than to put gas in. EVs also threatened the postal
mechanic's jobs.
Lower-level managers were also opposed. They didn't like to be told from
"on high" how to do things. The postal bureaucracy is strong and deep, and
mightily opposed to change. It's going to be mighty hard to overcome that
prejudice and inertia.
Lee Hart
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