This will be interesting to watch. They want a half billion dollars to
scale up, which actually sounds kind of small for the kind of
manufacturing they are planning. I think Tesla invested a lot more than
that to start its Gigafactories and other facilities. Even so, will they
be able to generate enough revenue to pay debt service and keep
investors happy. And, the payback for customers is questionable. While
corporations might be willing to pay more up front for putting on a
greener image, it will need to pay off in the long run. Theoretically it
seems it should - all the arguments for EVs should more or less apply:
little fuel used while idling, far less drive train maintenance,
presumably lower fuel costs.
Peri
<< Annoyed by leaf blowers ? https://quietcleanseattle.org/ >>
------ Original Message ------
From: "paul dove via EV" <[email protected]>
To: "Electric Vehicle Discussion List" <[email protected]>
Cc: "paul dove" <[email protected]>; "EVDL Administrator"
<[email protected]>
Sent: 15-Aug-21 05:43:24
Subject: Re: [EVDL] hydrogen isn't green, after all
Hyzon Motors has begun shipping hydrogen fuel cell trucks to customers –
TechCrunch
https://www.google.com/amp/s/techcrunch.com/2021/08/11/hyzon-motors-has-begun-shipping-hydrogen-fuel-cell-trucks-to-customers/amp/
Interesting startup
Sent from AT&T Yahoo Mail for iPhone
On Sunday, August 15, 2021, 2:58 AM, EVDL Administrator via EV
<[email protected]> wrote:
I'm not an expert, just a longtime EV follower, but I think that when it
comes to road vehicles, hydrogen had its chance and missed it.
In 2001, the limitation on EVs was, and always had been, the battery. In
1999, the GM EV1 had had a 26kWh NiMH battery, and the Nissan Altra EV had
had a 32 kWh lithium ion battery - more than respectable for the time. But
NiMH was artificially locked out of real world EVs, and both types were
hideously expensive. For all intents and purposes, in 2001 EV batteries
were still lead. A typical conversion carried maybe 12kWh of usable
capacity.
Who here would have guessed then that 20 years hence we'd have production
EVs at all, much less production EVs with batteries in the 50-100kWh
capacity range? Who would have thought that 150kW public charging would
start to appear on main highways, potentially charging a 50kWh battery in 20
minutes?
In 2001, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, and Hyundai all had concept and/or
demonstration FCEVs running. The feeble BEV range of the time opened a
window of opportunity for them.
Honda was the first to US market (California lease only) with the FCX
Clarity in 2008. Between 2008 and 2015, they leased all of 48. (They now
have another on offer, but again only in California, for reasons that will
become clear in a moment.)
After what they did with getting the Prius to market, you'd think that if
anyone could make FCEVs a success, it would be Toyota.
Toyota put the Mirai FCEV on US offer in 2015 (exactly 6 years ago to the
day, in fact). It had a fairly impressive per-fillup range of 312 miles.
Unfortunately, that hydrogen fillup cost about $85. And since hydrogen was
nigh onto unavailable anywhere but in California (even today only 17 other
states have *any* H2 stations), that was the only state where you could buy
one - or drive one.
That same year, 2015, you could buy a Tesla Model S 85D with 260+ miles of
range and fill it up at any supercharger in any state. The S cost more than
the Mirai did, but the cost of "free" supercharger use for as long as you
owned it was still built into the price of the car.
2016 Sales
Toyota Mirai: 1,034
Tesla Model S: 29,421
Now why do you suppose Tesla sold over 28 times as many in 2016?
I have serious reservations about any automaker developing its own fueling
infrastructure, but the fact is that Tesla built superchargers by the dozens
and hundreds. How many hydrogen filling stations did Toyota build?
EVs are a HUGE change in vehicle culture. Public charging for them is a
HUGE investment in infrastructure.
The reality of capitalism is that it resists such changes with all its
might. Thus it's almost a miracle that we've seen BEVs become more or less
mainstream, at least in Europe.
A change like that doesn't come along often. TWO of each - BEVs and FCEVs,
charging service and hydrogen fuel service - just aren't bloody likely to
develop in one generation, let alone in a decade or two.
BEV public charging is growing fast, and its power is too. BEVs are now
practical for many drivers, sometimes as an only vehicle.
Hydrogen fueling is barely growing at all. FCEVs still aren't practical
transportation for anyone outside of a limited region in California.
BEVs have all the momentum, and I just don't see that changing.
Twenty years ago, FCEVs *could* have succeeded, if the manufacturers had
really wanted them to. But they didn't, so FCEVs missed the road vehicle
alt-fuel train. I could be wrong, but I don't think there'll be another.
David Roden, EVDL moderator & general lackey
To reach me, don't reply to this message; I won't get it. Use my
offlist address here : http://evdl.org/help/index.html#supt
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
I think; therefore, I'm alone in the universe.
-- Vern, "Over the Hedge"
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
_______________________________________________
Address messages to [email protected]
No other addresses in TO and CC fields
UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub
ARCHIVE: http://www.evdl.org/archive/
LIST INFO: http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL:
<http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20210815/565aa0e9/attachment.html>
_______________________________________________
Address messages to [email protected]
No other addresses in TO and CC fields
UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub
ARCHIVE: http://www.evdl.org/archive/
LIST INFO: http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org
_______________________________________________
Address messages to [email protected]
No other addresses in TO and CC fields
UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub
ARCHIVE: http://www.evdl.org/archive/
LIST INFO: http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org
