On Tue, Mar 26, 2002 at 02:25:21PM +0100, Juergen Schmidhuber wrote: > In particular, if p is deterministic, then the M-predictor soon > won't make any errors any more.
That's a bit imprecise, right? There's no guarantee that the M-predictor *soon* won't make any errors any more. It will only make a finite number of errors, but there's no telling how many errors will be made, or when the last error will be made. BTW, isn't the justification for universal prediction taken in this paper kind of opposite to the one you took? The abstract says "The problem, however, is that in many cases one does not even have a reasonable guess of the true distribution. In order to overcome this problem ..." Your papers on the other hand assume that the true distribution can be known and proposed that it must be the Speed Prior. (Later you said you believe it is the Speed Prior with probability 1.) Is this still your position?