Le 11-déc.-05, à 11:58, Stathis Papaioannou a écrit :
You find yourself alone in a room with a light that alternates
red/green with a period of one minute. A letter in the room informs
you that every other minute, 10^100 copies of you are created and run
in parallel for one minute, then shut down. The transition between
two states (low measure/ high measure) corresponds with the change in
the colour of the light, and you task is to guess which colour
corresponds to which state.
The problem is, whether the light is red or green, you could argue
that you are vastly more likely to be sampled from the 10^100 group.
You might decide to say that *both* red and green correspond to the
larger group, because if you say this 10^100 copies in the multiverse
will be correct and only one copy will be wrong. But clearly, this
tyranny of the majority strategy brings you no closer to the truth.
experiment).The probabilities can be taken only on the stories without
dead-ends, and I guess you consider the shut down as sort of "absolute
I know this is hard to believe, but apparently we are "conscious" only
because we belong to a continuum of infinite never ending stories ...
you tossed a coin, at least you would have a 1/2 chance of being
Yes but this is due to the "shut down". (if I got correctly your
I don't believe this, but then that's what the lobian machine's
"guardian angel" G* says about that: true and strictly unbelievable.
Do you accept that your argument won't go through if the shut down
In response to Stathis' thought experiment, to speak of an experiment
being "set up" in a certain way is to base probabilities on an
"irrelevant" subset of the whole, at least if the multiverse hypothesis
is true. In the Plenitude, there are an additional 10^100 copies still
existing, when you say that 10^100 copies are being shut-down. Talking
about these additional 10^100 copies is just as consistent as talking
about the original 10^100 copies (even more consistent if you consider
Bruno's statement about cul-de-sacs.
In the Plenitude, everything washes out to zero. And Bruno, I would
even say that all consistent histories wash out to zero.
Bruno, I've been following your posts about Kripke semantics and have
done the exercises, including the one about showing that you need a
symmetrical accessibility relation to have LASE. However, my initial
reaction still is that choosing a particular modal logic is scary to
me, sending up red flags about hidden assumptions that are being made
in the process. But I will continue to follow you as you present your
Earlier Stathis wrote:
are "generated", in platonia, by the Universal Dovetailer. A 3- OM is
just an UD-accessible state, and the 1-OMs inherit relative
probabilities from the computer science theoretical structuring of the
Bruno: OK but with comp I have argued that OMs are not primitive but
physical (apparently) universe, which leads to the evolution of
conscious beings, who then give rise to OMs?
Are OMs directly generated by the UD, or does the UD generate the
It's interesting that symmetry (Bruno's requirement for LASE) has come
up lately, because Stathis' question seems to be what we are all
wondering. That's the bottom line of multiverse theories: Where does
the symmetry breaking come from? I maintain still that it can't come
from the multiverse itself. Even considering only consistent
histories, there is no asymmetry to be found. I maintain that it needs
to come from outside the multiverse, which is something that we cannot