Bruno wrote:

Le 11-déc.-05, à 11:58, Stathis Papaioannou a écrit : 
You find yourself alone in a room with a light that alternates
red/green with a period of one minute. A letter in the room informs
you that every other minute, 10^100 copies of you are created and run
in parallel for one minute, then shut down. The transition between
two states (low measure/ high measure) corresponds with the change in
the colour of the light, and you task is to guess which colour
corresponds to which state. 
The problem is, whether the light is red or green, you could argue
that you are vastly more likely to be sampled from the 10^100 group.
You might decide to say that *both* red and green correspond to the
larger group, because if you say this 10^100 copies in the multiverse
will be correct and only one copy will be wrong. But clearly, this
tyranny of the majority strategy brings you no closer to the truth.
you tossed a coin, at least you would have a 1/2 chance of being
Yes but this is due to the "shut down". (if I got correctly your
experiment).The probabilities can be taken only on the stories without dead-ends, and I guess you consider the shut down as sort of "absolute annihilation".  I know this is hard to believe, but apparently we are "conscious" only because we belong to a continuum of infinite never ending stories ... 
I don't believe this, but then that's what the lobian machine's
"guardian angel" G* says about that: true and strictly unbelievable. 

Do you accept that your argument won't go through if the shut down
are deleted? 


In response to Stathis' thought experiment, to speak of an experiment being "set up" in a certain way is to base probabilities on an "irrelevant" subset of the whole, at least if the multiverse hypothesis is true. In the Plenitude, there are an additional 10^100 copies still existing, when you say that 10^100 copies are being shut-down. Talking about these additional 10^100 copies is just as consistent as talking about the original 10^100 copies (even more consistent if you consider Bruno's statement about cul-de-sacs.

In the Plenitude, everything washes out to zero. And Bruno, I would even say that all consistent histories wash out to zero. Bruno, I've been following your posts about Kripke semantics and have done the exercises, including the one about showing that you need a symmetrical accessibility relation to have LASE. However, my initial reaction still is that choosing a particular modal logic is scary to me, sending up red flags about hidden assumptions that are being made in the process. But I will continue to follow you as you present your case.

Earlier Stathis wrote:
Bruno: OK but with comp I have argued that OMs are not primitive but
are "generated", in platonia, by the Universal Dovetailer. A 3- OM is just an UD-accessible state, and the 1-OMs inherit relative probabilities from the computer science theoretical structuring of the 3-OMs.

Are OMs directly generated by the UD, or does the UD generate the
physical (apparently) universe, which leads to the evolution of conscious beings, who then give rise to OMs?

Stathis Papaioannou

It's interesting that symmetry (Bruno's requirement for LASE) has come up lately, because Stathis' question seems to be what we are all wondering. That's the bottom line of multiverse theories: Where does the symmetry breaking come from? I maintain still that it can't come from the multiverse itself. Even considering only consistent histories, there is no asymmetry to be found. I maintain that it needs to come from outside the multiverse, which is something that we cannot explain.

Tom Caylor

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