# Re: Why you should do the unexpected bet in front of a QS experiment ?

```On 1/9/2013 3:10 AM, Quentin Anciaux wrote:
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`Hi,`
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let us start with the proposed QS experiment by Tegmark, a QS machine with a 99/100 chance of a *perfect* kill (so let's put aside HP failure or whatever so to have either the experimenter is killed with the given probabilities or it is not, no in between, so in 1/100 he is not killed and perfectly well, 99/100 he is killed).
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You are a witness of such experiment, and you're asked to make a bet on the experimenter surviving (or not).
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So you bet 100\$, if you bet on the experimenter surviving, if he survive, you'll get 200\$, if he does not you'll lose your bet, likewise if you bet on him die.
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What you should do contrary to what seems reasonable, is to bet on the experimenter will survive for the following reason:
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If MWI is true:

```
1st Test: in 99/100 worlds you lose 100\$ (and the bet ends here, there is no experimenter left for a second round), in 1/100 worlds you win 200\$ 2nd Test: well... you cannot play again in the 99/100 worlds where you did lose 100\$, so you start already with 200\$ in your pocket for this 2nd test, so you should do the same, no here in 99/100 worlds, you did make a draw (you put 100\$ in 1st test + 100\$ win on the 1st test - 100\$ you did lose now because the experimenter is dead), in 1/100 you win again 200\$, that make 300\$ in your pocket.
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From the 3rd test on, you can only get richer, weither the experimenter lives from your POV or not.
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In QM+collapse, if the guy luckily survive two tests, you win money... you'll only lose money if he is killed at the first test.
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So contrary to what you may think, you should bet the experimenter should live, because in MWI, it is garanteed that you'll win money in a lot branches after only two succeeded test, and as in QM+collapse, only the 99/100 of the first test lose money, all the others either make no loss or win money.
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Did you bother to calculate the expected value of playing this game? It's \$98/0.99 whether you bet on survival or death. And since \$98/0.99<\$100 you had to start with, it's better not to play at all.
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Brent

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