On 1/9/2013 3:10 AM, Quentin Anciaux wrote:
let us start with the proposed QS experiment by Tegmark, a QS machine with a 99/100
chance of a *perfect* kill (so let's put aside HP failure or whatever so to have either
the experimenter is killed with the given probabilities or it is not, no in between, so
in 1/100 he is not killed and perfectly well, 99/100 he is killed).
You are a witness of such experiment, and you're asked to make a bet on the experimenter
surviving (or not).
So you bet 100$, if you bet on the experimenter surviving, if he survive, you'll get
200$, if he does not you'll lose your bet, likewise if you bet on him die.
What you should do contrary to what seems reasonable, is to bet on the experimenter will
survive for the following reason:
If MWI is true:
1st Test: in 99/100 worlds you lose 100$ (and the bet ends here, there is no
experimenter left for a second round), in 1/100 worlds you win 200$
2nd Test: well... you cannot play again in the 99/100 worlds where you did lose 100$, so
you start already with 200$ in your pocket for this 2nd test, so you should do the same,
no here in 99/100 worlds, you did make a draw (you put 100$ in 1st test + 100$ win on
the 1st test - 100$ you did lose now because the experimenter is dead), in 1/100 you win
again 200$, that make 300$ in your pocket.
From the 3rd test on, you can only get richer, weither the experimenter lives from your
POV or not.
In QM+collapse, if the guy luckily survive two tests, you win money... you'll only lose
money if he is killed at the first test.
So contrary to what you may think, you should bet the experimenter should live, because
in MWI, it is garanteed that you'll win money in a lot branches after only two succeeded
test, and as in QM+collapse, only the 99/100 of the first test lose money, all the
others either make no loss or win money.
Did you bother to calculate the expected value of playing this game? It's $98/0.99
whether you bet on survival or death. And since $98/0.99<$100 you had to start with, it's
better not to play at all.
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