Retrodiction, instead of prediction, in this case.
2013/11/14 Alberto G. Corona <[email protected]> > Yes. > > I proposed myself not to argue against sectarian apocalypticists because > that is a waste of time, but honoring those of you that are not seduced by > the end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it movement, I will say something: > > Climatic models are bullshit. if you look at how they adjust parameters > looking at the climategate mails you will have no doubt. Starting from that > funny way for manufacturing models, it is no surprise that they predict > nothing as Telmo said. > > There is a model of the earth nucleus. It is very good. Why? Because it > behaves like the real nucleus. It invert polarity every 14000 years I > believe, dont want to fire up the wikipedia to get the real digits. That is > why it is a good model. > > What would be a good test of a climatic model?. We know that at the > glacial eras started when North and South America united by the istmus of > Panama closed the free water movement between the atlantic and pacific. > That changed the global water flow regimes and resulted in the two polar > ice caps. > > It is easy to configure the continents in the climate models and see what > happens in each configuration of the american continents. Why they dont try > it?. Because they know that their models are lacking decades of research to > get accurate enough for the simplest long term prediction. > > > 2013/11/13 Telmo Menezes <[email protected]> > >> On Wed, Nov 13, 2013 at 7:49 PM, LizR <[email protected]> wrote: >> > Obviously there is more CO2 in the air than there has been for a very >> long >> > time, and obviously the climate has changed somewhat in the last couple >> of >> > decades (warmest on record, again and again). It's hard to prove the >> > connection, of course, but the circumstantial evidence is overwhelming. >> Of >> > 13,950 peer-reviewed climate articles published between 1991 and 2012, >> 24 >> > rejected global warming. It's a little thing we've come up with to try >> and >> > understand the world. We call it "science". >> >> This is just sophisticated arguing from authority, not science. >> Science is the process of formulating a theory with which you can make >> predictions and then testing these predictions. If the predictions are >> incorrect, the theory is falsified. The number of papers that say >> something and the amount of consensus is irrelevant in the face of >> experimental falsification. Science is not democracy, it's empiricism. >> All scientific revolutions started as minority views. >> >> There is overwhelming evidence in favour of the theory of evolution >> because of the number of predictions it got right, not because of the >> amount of papers that say that it is a spiffy theory. The theory of >> anthropogenic global warming does not look so stellar because it >> failed to predict the current cooling period. >> >> Given the tremendous human cost of reducing CO2 emissions, the >> rational thing to do is to weigh the probability of the theory being >> correct against this cost. I don't have an answer here, nor am I >> qualified to give it. I know a bit about complex systems modelling and >> this makes me very skeptical of "overwhelming evidences", especially >> in the face of surprising observables against the models. >> >> > Obviously fossil fuel will run out anyway, so even without climate >> change >> > we'd have to do something. >> >> Yes, but that something we have to do is very different depending on >> whether or not we have to cut CO2 emissions and, more importantly, one >> of the path leads to immense human suffering. >> >> Then there are the geo-engineering ideas that John mentioned. They >> appear to be ignored. This makes the entire thing start to smell a bit >> of religious moralism. >> >> Telmo. >> >> > I think nuclear is a good short term solution, >> > for sure. Especially subcritical reactors. >> > >> > >> > >> > On 14 November 2013 06:06, Telmo Menezes <[email protected]> >> wrote: >> >> >> >> On Wed, Nov 13, 2013 at 5:54 PM, John Clark <[email protected]> >> wrote: >> >> > On Wed, Nov 13, 2013 at 11:15 AM, Telmo Menezes < >> [email protected]> >> >> > wrote: >> >> > >> >> >> >> >> >> > I would like to point out that I did not write the first two >> >> >> > sentences >> >> >> you cite and I was being sarcastic when I wrote the third one. >> >> > >> >> > >> >> > Sorry. >> >> >> >> No worries. >> >> >> >> Telmo. >> >> >> >> > John K Clark >> >> > >> >> > -- >> >> > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >> >> > Groups >> >> > "Everything List" group. >> >> > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, >> send >> >> > an >> >> > email to [email protected]. >> >> > To post to this group, send email to >> [email protected]. >> >> > Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. >> >> > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. >> >> >> >> -- >> >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >> Groups >> >> "Everything List" group. >> >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send >> an >> >> email to [email protected]. >> >> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >> >> Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. >> >> For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. >> > >> > >> > -- >> > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >> Groups >> > "Everything List" group. >> > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send >> an >> > email to [email protected]. >> > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >> > Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. >> > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "Everything List" group. >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an >> email to [email protected]. >> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >> Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. >> For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. >> > > > > -- > Alberto. > -- Alberto. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. 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