On 11/15/2013 2:11 AM, Alberto G. Corona wrote:
There is a model of the earth nucleus. It is very good. Why? Because it behaves like the real nucleus. It invert polarity every 14000 years I believe, dont want to fire up the wikipedia to get the real digits. That is why it is a good model. Just like climate models parameter values have been inferred by matching past data. I selected this paragraph alone
"Selected"? I thought you wrote it.
to show that you, in your obfuscation, don´t understand the difference between predicion (or retrodiction) and tweking for predicting (or retrodict) nothing AT ALL.
I understand that to predict something with a computer program you have to provide parameter values as well as dynamic equations. There is always uncertainty about the value of those parameters: heat transfer coefficients, albedo, enthalpy... So when I compare my model output to actual data (if there is any) I of course try adjusting some of the more uncertain parameters to improve the fit because that will improve the predictive accuracy of the model. I don't adjust them beyond the original uncertainty bounds, because then it's just curve fitting. Curve fitting can give good predictions too, but it doesn't given any insight into how the system works or what to modify to change it. I understand this because I do it for a living. So I'm afraid it is you who are the amateur here.
That is why I said that it is a waste of time to discuss the apocalypse with the apocalipticists.
There's nothing apocalyptic about global warming. Human will survive as a species. At least so long as it doesn't trigger a nuclear war. But there will be a lot death and suffering.
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