On Fri, Aug 8, 2014 at 6:23 AM, LizR <[email protected]> wrote: > On 8 August 2014 09:11, Bruno Marchal <[email protected]> wrote: > >> >> >> a) with a destructive eavesdropping? >> > > This is surely 1 in 4. 1 out of 4 times your message is intercepted and > reconstituted in Hell. So 1 in 4 times you go to Hell. > >> >> b) with a non-destructive eavesdropping? >> >> 1 in 4 times your message is intercepted, and on that occasion there is a > 50-50 chance to find yourself in Hell. So there is a 1 in 4 chance of > interception, and half that of ending in Hell, so 1 in 8. > > (This is assuming that your are digitally emulable, of course. Otherwise > teleportation will destroy you, so the chances are 0 in each case.) >
I can see that, but I'm not sure there isn't another split of probabilities/events when the message is intercepted and the branches split into "eavesdropping destructive" and "non-destructive" respectively. Same for half the reconstitutions following non-destructive eavesdropping landing me in Hell and half on Mars, which you already pointed out. In this case, high school probability stuff still rings bells (even if they might be out-of-tune here, lol) like so: On Thu, Aug 7, 2014 at 11:11 PM, Bruno Marchal <[email protected]> wrote: > > > Now there will be two questions, according to the fact that > the eavesdropping is destructive, or not. > > The eavesdropping is destructive when Eve, the "pirate", intercepts the > message, and prevents it to attain Mars. > Assuming for simplicity that Eve is destructive for half of the total number of events intercepted: 1/4 * 1/2 = 1/8 > The eavesdropping is non-destructive when Eve intercepts the message, > copies it, and let it attain Mars. > That I reach mars or hell (1/2 respectively) non-destructively (1/2) with eavesdropping (1/4): 1/4 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/16 > > In both question the probability of eavesdropping is 1/4, and it is > supposed that Eve reconstitutes you in Hell, or some bad place. > > You are on Earth, just before pushing the button. How do you evaluate your > chance to find yourself in hell? > > a) with a destructive eavesdropping? > 1/8 > > b) with a non-destructive eavesdropping? > 1/16 I'd be most interested in my basic probability to find myself in hell, regardless of how destructive: 1/8 + 1/16 = 3/16 Assuming I understood, 3 out of 16 times I push the button, I'd end up in hell. I'd have to be really desperate, and Mars business would have to be really urgent. PGC -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
