On Mon, Jul 31, 2017  Stathis Papaioannou <stath...@gmail.com> wrote:

​> ​
> People make predictions based on past experience.
>

That's induction.
​ ​
Flash a bright light at a snail, wait 2 seconds and then give
​it​
 a mild electrical
​
shock. Repeat this several times. Then you will note that the snail will
start to retreat into its shell as soon as the light flashes even before
the electrical jolt is sent. If you then change tactics and flash the light
but give no shock the snail will learn to ignore the light. And the snail
can thank induction for all of this survival enhancing behavior.
​
Induction is a good rule of thumb that works more often than it fails, but
even when it fails and the prediction is wrong people still feel like people
​
, and although I don't know it
​for​
 a fact I have a hunch snails would still feel like snails. So
​
why do we keep talking about the accuracy of predictions as if they have
something to do with
​
consciousness?


> ​> ​
> You can say to the rat, "personal pronouns have no meaning when there are
> multiple copies of you, and therefore it is nonsensical to predict that you
> will get the reward", but the rat won't care,
>

​If I'm the rat I care
who gets the reward and I care what the bet​ is. And what exactly is the
bet anyway?



> ​> ​
> and I think most humans won't care either.
>

Maybe so who knows, humans do a lot of silly stuff for superstitious or
religious reasons,
voting for Trump for example, but I thought we were talking about the
nature of reality not human irrationality.  ​


​ John K Clark ​

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