My Bayesian prior estimate would be around 10^{-12}, based on my estimate
that at most 1000 planets in a galaxy might have complex life and then any
ETI has a small time stamp on that.
LC
On Tuesday, August 16, 2022 at 3:53:09 PM UTC-5 [email protected] wrote:
> Brent; what are your priors? I am interested in your inferences. AG
>
> On Monday, August 15, 2022 at 2:38:44 PM UTC-6 [email protected] wrote:
>
>> That's not my prior.
>>
>> Brent
>>
>>
>> On 8/15/2022 12:20 AM, Alan Grayson wrote:
>>
>> Since we have zero information whether the guy is lying or not, we have
>> to assume a 50% probability that he's telling the truth. Is there any
>> "scientist" here willing to go that far? AG
>>
>> On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 3:45:43 PM UTC-6 Alan Grayson wrote:
>>
>>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xk0INH_DI1M
>>>
>> --
>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
>> "Everything List" group.
>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an
>> email to [email protected].
>> To view this discussion on the web visit
>> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/5cf40055-08b7-49a4-9951-1da95444bdfan%40googlegroups.com
>>
>> <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/5cf40055-08b7-49a4-9951-1da95444bdfan%40googlegroups.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer>
>> .
>>
>>
>>
--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
"Everything List" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email
to [email protected].
To view this discussion on the web visit
https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/48b6b156-b00b-4628-9c9c-85ede7aa794an%40googlegroups.com.
