Am Sa, 20. Aug 2022, um 01:24, schrieb Lawrence Crowell:
> My Bayesian prior estimate would be around 10^{-12}, based on my estimate
> that at most 1000 planets in a galaxy might have complex life and then any
> ETI has a small time stamp on that.
Lawrence, I am curious about your estimate (and agnostic, this is not
argumentative). Do you figure that any planet similar to Earth* will invariably
develop intelligent life? Or are you estimating a certain probability for such
a planet? And do you figure that intelligent life could emerge in conditions
very different from Earth?
Telmo
* "M-Class planet" for the Trekkies amongst us
> LC
> On Tuesday, August 16, 2022 at 3:53:09 PM UTC-5 [email protected] wrote:
>> Brent; what are your priors? I am interested in your inferences. AG
>>
>>
>> On Monday, August 15, 2022 at 2:38:44 PM UTC-6 [email protected] wrote:
>>> That's not my prior.
>>>
>>> Brent
>>>
>>>
>>> On 8/15/2022 12:20 AM, Alan Grayson wrote:
>>>> Since we have zero information whether the guy is lying or not, we have to
>>>> assume a 50% probability that he's telling the truth. Is there any
>>>> "scientist" here willing to go that far? AG
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 3:45:43 PM UTC-6 Alan Grayson wrote:
>>>>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xk0INH_DI1M
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>
>
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