Well, playing scifi here, if the complex life is carbon-water, then yeah, death from heat or radiation. If somehow it is crystal made from silicon, or carbon-silicon chemistry, then heat and radiation would not sterilize at all. Am I counting on this to be nearby, as within the old Milky Way. NO. Math is not observation, and detection is all that matters. Nearly everything that looked hopefully towards a populated galaxy decades ago, has gone sideways.
-----Original Message----- From: Alan Grayson <[email protected]> To: Everything List <[email protected]> Sent: Sat, Aug 20, 2022 10:48 am Subject: Re: Believe it or not? What would be your Bayesian prior estimate for intelligent life emerging from Earth? AG On Friday, August 19, 2022 at 5:24:16 PM UTC-6 Lawrence Crowell wrote: My Bayesian prior estimate would be around 10^{-12}, based on my estimate that at most 1000 planets in a galaxy might have complex life and then any ETI has a small time stamp on that. LC On Tuesday, August 16, 2022 at 3:53:09 PM UTC-5 [email protected] wrote: Brent; what are your priors? I am interested in your inferences. AG On Monday, August 15, 2022 at 2:38:44 PM UTC-6 [email protected] wrote: That's not my prior. Brent On 8/15/2022 12:20 AM, Alan Grayson wrote: Since we have zero information whether the guy is lying or not, we have to assume a 50% probability that he's telling the truth. Is there any "scientist" here willing to go that far? AG On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 3:45:43 PM UTC-6 Alan Grayson wrote: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xk0INH_DI1M -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/5cf40055-08b7-49a4-9951-1da95444bdfan%40googlegroups.com. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/71622415-49ce-46b0-adbd-4645944f9c47n%40googlegroups.com. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/1244698766.379546.1661022663491%40mail.yahoo.com.
