What would be your Bayesian prior estimate for intelligent life emerging
from Earth? AG
On Friday, August 19, 2022 at 5:24:16 PM UTC-6 Lawrence Crowell wrote:
> My Bayesian prior estimate would be around 10^{-12}, based on my estimate
> that at most 1000 planets in a galaxy might have complex life and then any
> ETI has a small time stamp on that.
>
> LC
>
> On Tuesday, August 16, 2022 at 3:53:09 PM UTC-5 [email protected] wrote:
>
>> Brent; what are your priors? I am interested in your inferences. AG
>>
>> On Monday, August 15, 2022 at 2:38:44 PM UTC-6 [email protected] wrote:
>>
>>> That's not my prior.
>>>
>>> Brent
>>>
>>>
>>> On 8/15/2022 12:20 AM, Alan Grayson wrote:
>>>
>>> Since we have zero information whether the guy is lying or not, we have
>>> to assume a 50% probability that he's telling the truth. Is there any
>>> "scientist" here willing to go that far? AG
>>>
>>> On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 3:45:43 PM UTC-6 Alan Grayson wrote:
>>>
>>>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xk0INH_DI1M
>>>>
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