Am Sa, 20. Aug 2022, um 16:48, schrieb Alan Grayson:
> What would be your Bayesian prior estimate for intelligent life emerging from
> Earth? AG
1, what else could it be?
Telmo
> On Friday, August 19, 2022 at 5:24:16 PM UTC-6 Lawrence Crowell wrote:
>> My Bayesian prior estimate would be around 10^{-12}, based on my estimate
>> that at most 1000 planets in a galaxy might have complex life and then any
>> ETI has a small time stamp on that.
>>
>> LC
>> On Tuesday, August 16, 2022 at 3:53:09 PM UTC-5 [email protected] wrote:
>>> Brent; what are your priors? I am interested in your inferences. AG
>>>
>>>
>>> On Monday, August 15, 2022 at 2:38:44 PM UTC-6 [email protected] wrote:
>>>> That's not my prior.
>>>>
>>>> Brent
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On 8/15/2022 12:20 AM, Alan Grayson wrote:
>>>>> Since we have zero information whether the guy is lying or not, we have
>>>>> to assume a 50% probability that he's telling the truth. Is there any
>>>>> "scientist" here willing to go that far? AG
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 3:45:43 PM UTC-6 Alan Grayson wrote:
>>>>>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xk0INH_DI1M
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>>>>
>
>
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